Random Barking

Woof Woof Woof

The state of our Union is getting stronger -- we've come too far to turn back now.
--President Barack Obama, State Of The Union Address; January 24, 2012

In looking over a wide variety of blogs and websites -- it struck me that more than any other generation that's preceded us, we have access to factual details and a wealth actual data in support, clearly showing how badly we have been screwed; by whom; and effects of their predations, given that this slow-motion aircraft crash is very far from being over.

And how clear it is (short of an out-and-out revolution) that we're effectively powerless to do anything about it, or bring those responsible to any legitimate form of justice.

Just sayin'.

---

Kein Schwein Ruft Mich An

Episode XVI: Kicking A Can So Big It Cannot Fail

Jack Ewing, in the Paper Of Record, in the wake of Davos and in advance of the meeting of EU Leaders on January 30th:

DAVOS, Switzerland — World leaders turned up the pressure on Europe on Saturday to erect a more formidable wall of money against the sovereign debt crisis, warning that the eurozone continues to pose a severe threat to the global economy.

George Osborne, the chancellor of the Exchequer in Britain, said a bigger firewall was “a key to unlocking further confidence,” while Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said the fund should be big enough to eliminate any doubts about European resolve.

“If it is big enough, it will not get used,” she said on Saturday during a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum here.

The firewall being discussed is the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), a separate fund set up by the EU and the European Central Bank in collusion cooperation with the IMF and the World Bank, holding 500 Billion Euro ($656 Billion USD) as an emergency contingency fund, to provide Eurozone governments with loans when austerity policies fail to reduce sovereign debt.

The 'economic charter', agreed to in principle by all but one of the Eurozone nations in December of last year (Britain opting out rather spectacularly) and still needing ratification by 16 governments, included a promise to complete setting up the ESM and having it ready for operation by July of this year.

These governments are faced with deficits in simply running their governments. They use short-term bond sales to raise cash -- but these auctions don't go well, because the interest rates on the bonds may be high. The governments end up paying more to bondholders than originally projected; an unanticipated addition to their deficits, which the bonds were supposed to help solve. Here, the ESM would step in to provide the government with a loan to ensure 100% on the Euro was repaid, plus interest, to all the bondholders.

The idea's supporters are saying that if the amount of funding in the ESM was huge, gigantic, then "The Market" should understand that it can invest in bonds from Greece and elsewhere with confidence, and interest rates for new short-term bonds should be lower. Maybe. The total ESM fund may have to be much larger than the $500 Billion Euros already suggested.


Obligatory Cute Small Animal Photo In Middle Of Financial Blog Rant.
Today, We Offer Reddy Kilowatt, In Advance Of The Pending Attack On Iran

Angela Merkel and Nicholas Sarkozy have tied the ESM's creation to the EU / Eurozone's acceptance of changes to centralize the Eurozone's economic policies; the ESM is part of that general framework.

Merkel couldn't get a consensus of the full 40-nation membership in the December, 2011 EU meeting to change the Treaty of Lisbon; however, she was able to pull together the Eurozone countries (minus England) to approve a separate 'economic charter' that would initiate a framework for more economic cooperation, but also to enshrine Austerity policies in EU economic regulation.

Austerity is the chosen method to end the cycle of debt in the Eurozone. 'Spendthrift' nations must cut their governments' budgets and reduce their annual deficits. If they don't (so the 'economic charter' lays out), in some cases they can be fined, or lose more autonomy in handling their nations' finances to the EU.

Austerity is an exceptionally bad idea, and many economists have weighed in against it. More Austerity means cutting government budgets because further deficit spending is viewed by the Austerians as an absolute evil. Austerity means (best case) stagnation, and no growth, or (worst case) full Recession.

Eventually, a European economic slide will effect global markets and economies -- and that's what Austerity ultimately means. It will prolong economic hardship for nearly everyone, except the already-wealthy. It will increase social stratification and continue destroying the so-called Middle Class in most Western nations.

For Europe, it means being shoved head-first towards an unknown period of higher unemployment and crime, lowered expectations and standards of living, and the general grit and depressive shabbiness which comes with all of that.

People in Europe understand this on an intellectual level, but many still have yet to experience fewer jobs, buses, streetcars and garbage pickups; reduced public health coverage and increased work loads for remaining employees of corporations who demand higher productivity: There's always someone else who will do your job for less -- so shape up and shut up. People in Greece and Ireland particularly, followed by Spain (where unemployment is nearly 23%) and Portugal, and soon, Italy, are already experiencing it.

One fact about the ESM is that it cannot be made large enough to cover all the potential deficits in national budgets of the 16 participating Eurozone nations. Creating it is more than just a political gesture, but as Felix Salmon noted in December,

... All of Europe’s hopes right now are being placed in ... the European Stability Mechanism ... [which] is going to have to be constructed with the ability to put out fires of any conceivable size. And as such, it’s going to have to be able to borrow enormous amounts of money, and lend them on to countries which have found themselves in trouble.

But that would make the ESM, essentially, a bank. And the European leaders seem determined, today, to prevent the ESM from operating as a bank at all. Which means it will never get the firepower it needs to be taken seriously... the ESM seems set to be capped at a mere €500 billion euros ... compare [that] to Italy’s total debt of roughly €2 trillion. And that isn’t even counting Spain, or Portugal, or Ireland, or whatever money Greece might yet still need.

Many Europeans already are beginning to understand that Austerity will not be experienced equally. Some countries within the EU which don't have as high a GDP-to-debt ratio (specifically, Germany and France) will not experience as rapid a rate of change, or as steep a drop, in their living standards as the 'spendthrift' nations of the Eurozone. And with that will come political tensions between EU countries, and between political parties in those nations where the bite of Austerity is felt most strongly.

Some EU politicians agree with this; some don't -- and the disagreement is over both making Austerity The economic policy, and giving up some control of their country's economies (including their banks) to a larger EU organization. The British voted 'No' to that, and other EU politicians are worried that support for the Eisen Kanzellerin and her 'policy of Less' might hurt them politically -- because not everyone in Europe Hearts Little Angela.

Eurozone leaders are more focused on dealing with what they see as the more immediate danger of a Greek default, and less on testing their taxpayers’ patience by increasing the size of the firewall...

“I’ve never been as scared as now about the world,” said Donald Tsang, chief executive of Hong Kong... “We do not know how deep this hole would be when the whole thing implodes on us,” he said...

Nouriel Roubini, a professor of economics at New York University known for his pessimistic views, forecast Saturday that Greece would have to leave the eurozone this year, and said that there was at least a 50 percent chance that the eurozone would break up within three to five years.

“The euro zone is a slow-motion train wreck,” Mr. Roubini said during a separate panel discussion.

...Speakers on Saturday did not say how big they thought the European firewall should be. But, again echoing American officials, they agreed it should be so enormous that no investor would question its integrity.

In other words, it should be made "Too Big To Fail".

---

MEHR: The Independent UK (courtesy of The Great Curmudgeon) reports:

Europe's leaders remained locked in dispute yesterday over the size of the eurozone bailout funds, as it emerged Germany is pushing for Greece to be stripped of powers to control its budgets.

The move to make Greece hand over control of budgetary policy as the price for agreeing a €130bn rescue package [this tied to an approaching deadline to redeem short-term Greek government bonds, plus interest; see above] would represent a humiliating blow to Greece's hopes of controlling its own destiny but could offer a means of staving off financial ruin.

The proposal was made by Germany as the euro group considered how extra finance should be offered to countries such as Greece which need support but are "continuously off-track" with their budgets... [that] European institutions already operating in Greece should be given "certain decision-making powers" over fiscal policy.

Hey -- Austerity forced on 'spendthrift' governments, as determined by Angela's model! Now that's an idea that will have broad, popular support among Greeks! Huh? You think? Well, okay; maybe not...

Details of the proposal emerged as finance ministers met at the World Economic Forum in Davos where France and Germany publicly disagreed over the size of the "firewall" needed to protect European economies.

Also, too, Bloomberg reports that new 30-year Greek bonds may well carry a cap on interest rates.

---

Dort Tanz Lu-Lu

Ah-ha-ha; Ooo-hu-hu: Liveblogging The State Of The Union Address
We've never done this before. A little music while we wait.

6:05 PDST:
Interesting that ABC touts this as the SOTU, "And The Republican Response". Guess that's 'equal time'. I'm on CBS.

Okay; the President has been announced. He's making his way down the aisle, and appears on his game: Confident, a little jocular, laughing (the way you do when you have a little nervous energy to burn).

6:10 PDST:
Scott Peley and CBS's White House Correspondent, Bob Schaeffer, note that Supreme Court Justices Alito, Thomas and Scalia are absent. They're such nice people; we wish everything for them that they wish for Obama. And more.

6:12 PDST:
Obama has reached the podium. Leading with the return of soldiers from Iraq. "We gather tonight knowing that this generation of heroes has made America safer and more respected around the world..." Leading with national security and defense issues. Subtext: Don't come at me, or the Democratic party, from that direction.

"Imagine what we could accomplish if we followed their examples.... We can do this! I know we've done it, because we've done it before."

6:19 PDST:
A few making it well, the rest not getting by so well; "all must play by the same rules", and almost everyone in the room applauds. Even the Rethugs. Interesting.

The Financial Crisis: "It was wrong -- it was irresponsible... and left hard-working Americans holding the bag."

6:25 PDST:
'I will fight obstructionism and the failed policies that got us in this predicament in the first place'. Where it begins, he says, is American manufacturing -- not sure about that, given how globalization has changed the face of how business is conducted. Unless we can offer corporate business an advantage by investing in America, not sure how that can happen.

Oh, I see: "We can't bring back every job that's left our shores... it's more expensive to do business [these days] in China." Ask how you can bring back jobs to America and the government will help you.

American businesses here are hit by bad tax rate (Uh-Oh). If you outsource, you shouldn't get a tax break; multinationals should pay a fair tax, and advantages go to those who hire in America (Ruh-Roh). Well, this sounds nice...

"Send me these tax reforms, and I will sign them". Good luck with that; President Boner keeps scratching his face. He has a disease? He can't stay still?

6:30 PDST:
We've brought trade issues with China at twice the rate as [Lil' Boots Bush], he says, and Obama announces a new regulatory unit to cover intellectual and product safety issues with China. That's fine, but they won't love hearing that.

6:38 PDST:
Teachers. Cut the deadwood; don't teach to the test. A proposal that in every state, teenagers stay in school by law until they graduate or turn 18. States need to make higher education a priority in their budgets, and "higher education is not a luxury".

"We should be working on comprehensive immigration reform, right now." The Rethugs won't stand up for that.

"Women should have equal pay for equal work". Yeah; everybody better stand up for that and applaud; isn't that supposed to be a reality already?

President Boner looks like he has gas; his eyes keep darting back and forth. President Yertle The Turtle has a tiny, tiny smile on his tiny, smooth face.

Don't lose the race for the future. Make more energy! We have natural gas! We can safely develop it. Hundreds of thousands of jobs. We don't have to choose between our economy and our environment. Fracking = good.

6:45 PDST:
"We've subsidized oil companies for generations."

No reason Congress can't set clean energy standards? Sure there are. There are 200-plus of them in the House and forty-plus in the Senate. "Send me a bill to create these jobs."

Now, infrastructure: "During the Great Depression, America built the Hoover Dam and the Golden Gate Bridge... take the money we are no longer spending at war, and use some of it to do some nation-building right here at home."

6:50 PDST:
It's time to have a nation of accountability. We need smart regulations to prevent irresponsible behavior (Uncertain Applause), which will strengthen the financial system. "No bailouts, no handouts, no cop outs".

And a very bad joke about oil and spilled milk.

And, I will not back down from protecting our water and air; I will not go back to the bad old days of health insurance coverage, and where Wall Street plays by its own rules. If you're a bank, you can't play with depositors' and investors' monies in the Big Casino any more.

Pass legislation to prosecute fraud; send me the bill -- the Justice Department is going to investigate the packaging and selling of bad home loans (Hey Angelo! You got a problem!)

"Pass the payroll tax cut without delay." And Little Eric Cantor politely applauds.


Obligatory Cute Small Animal Photo Smack In Middle Of State Of Union

6:59 PDST:
A quarter of all millionaires paid less taxes than millions of American households. Doe we want the Bush tax cuts, or everything else? Because if we want to pay down the debt, we can't have Lil' Boots and things for The People.

The American people know what the right thing to do is. You can call this class welfare all you want. The American Dream is not because we envy the rich, but because we believe we can be like them.

America, built to last, is not one where there is no shared sacrifice.

7:05 PDST:
Ahh, Congress. And President Boner wipes his nose again.

None of this can happen unless we lower the temperature in this town. Politics shouldn't be about mutual destruction. Even though Obama has already been slapped and stepped on by the Rethugs time and again, he's still (publicly, anyway) extending an olive branch.

"We should all want a smarter, more effective government... because together, there's nothing the United States of America can't achieve."

7:10 PDST:
And now, the Arab Spring is mentioned. Ghaddafi Duck is dead, and human dignity in Syria cannot be denied (Oh, cannot it? Ask folks in Hom 'bout that).

Tyranny is no match for liberty. America will take no options off the table in preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but "there is still an opportunity for a peaceful settlement" -- the best way, but we have never been closer to Israel.

"Anyone who says that America... has waned, they don't know what they're talking about... America remains the one, indispensable nation in world affairs, and... I intend to keep it that way."

7:16 PDST:
Man; President Boner is just Buzz Killington tonight. Maybe he'll cry. It's Republican credibility!

Those of us have been sent here to serve can learn... from our troops. When you put on the uniform, it doesn't matter if you're" whatever you are. "You fight for the people beside you; you rise and fall as one unit -- one nation".

When we nailed bin Laden, no one thought about differences, just the mission. The SEALs succeded because everyone on the team trusted each other... "So it is with America."

This nation is great because we built it together.. because we built it as a team... as long as we maintain our common purpose...

A real, solid close.

7:20 PDST:
ABC reports that before the speech, Vice-President Biden told a roomful of Democrats that the speech, in essence, was "bin Laden is dead; General Motors is alive".

Peggy Noonan, a Reagan and Bush Republican: Speech was too long; why is he talking about all this stuff he should've been talking about in the past three years?

CBS reports that Obama is defining the election about the road ahead, while the Rethugs want it to be a referendum on his Presidency. Mitch Daniels, Republican Governor of the Grrrrrreaat State of Indiana, will deliver the Rethug response.

7:23 PDST:
Cut to commercial! And who gives a damn what Fox is saying. Not surprised if they ran audio of the speech while showing a crudely-drawn caricature of an African-American man on video -- The sort of thing that warms the heart of Crafty Ol' Aussie Little Rupert.

7:29 PDST:
Mitch Daniels, with his faint Southern accent.

Thanks for killing bin Laden, and the President is a good family man. However, the last three years have been horrifying and he's responsible.

Trillions added to the national debt (oh, give it up; 42% of all increases in the Debt since 2000 came from Lil' Boots Bush. Talk to the CBO). As Republicans, let us compare America's financial situation to Greece and Yurp, even though our economic systems are completely different.

We talk tonight to Americans who want to do better by offering "a private economy" as the solution. Pull yourself up by your bootstraps. Be pro-growth, private sector jobs for everyone!

Fewer tax rates! Don't penalize "job creators"! Energy extremists are bad!

We must save Medicare and Social Security, but we have to build all new programs! The dollars need to go to those who need them most (seniors who can vote for Newt), but in future we need better ways!

We're not obstacles; we're victims of the President and his Democratic allies (yes, Mitch actually used the word "Democratic", not "Democrat")! If we fail to go to a pro-growth government, it will be bad.

Republicans aren't divisive; we're not obstructionists -- all you have to do is agree with us, do what we want, and we'll just ignore you! Better than if we pay attention to you.

7:40 PDST:
The Democrats claime we can't govern ourselves -- the Democrats are dividing us! We must strike out boldly that America is still the land of More Fore The Rich opportunity. The President is lying about how bad things are -- FEAR! FEAR THE FUTURE! FEAR IT!!

"Nothing mature and freeborn citizens cannot set right... the city shining on a hill". What in the utter fuck is he talking about -- "mature and freeborn"??

Thank you, and Good Night.

---

Mein Gorilla

Austerity Forever

In a column this morning about the state of the nation, Paul Krugman, Mensch, and one of the smartest persons on the planet, noted that there are small signs of -- and don't say it too loud -- 'recovery' with a small 'r' here in America.

But the economy is depressed, in large part, because of the housing bust, which immediately suggests the possibility of a virtuous circle: an improving economy leads to a surge in home purchases, which leads to more construction, which strengthens the economy further, and so on. And if you squint hard at recent data, it looks as if something like that may be starting: home sales are up, unemployment claims are down, and builders’ confidence is rising.

Furthermore, the chances for a virtuous circle have been rising, because we’ve made significant progress on the debt front.

At the same time, Krugman notes that our nacent 'recovery' could be cut short by what Europe's leaders are (or, aren't) doing:

There are, of course, still big risks — above all, the risk that trouble in Europe could derail our own incipient recovery. And thereby hangs a tale ... told by a recent report from the McKinsey Global Institute.

The report tracks progress on “deleveraging,” ... bringing down excessive debt levels. It documents substantial progress in the United States, which it contrasts with failure to make progress in Europe. And while the report doesn’t say this explicitly, it’s pretty clear why Europe is doing worse than we are: it’s because European policy makers have been afraid of the wrong things.

In particular, the European Central Bank has been worrying about inflation — even raising interest rates during 2011, only to reverse course later in the year — rather than worrying about how to sustain economic recovery. And fiscal austerity, which is supposed to limit the increase in government debt, has depressed the economy, making it impossible to achieve urgently needed reductions in private debt. The end result is that for all their moralizing about the evils of borrowing, the Europeans aren’t making any progress against excessive debt — whereas we are.

What Europe does, or more likely does not do, is the 800-Pound Gorilla in global finance.

Merkel and Sarkozy are determined to save the Euro, and preserve European Union. They absolutely will not waver from austerity programs which Greece, Spain, Ireland, Great Britain, Italy and Portugal have had to adopt as a condition of loans made by the ECB (Note: This isn't true for the British, who have voluntarily adopted Austerity Forever! because they're a cold people who boil everything, including their bread; so there). It doesn't matter that evidence is clear that Austerity is killing Europe's economy as it impoverishes its people. Yet all the Great Nations Of Europe can do is say more cuts!

The 'Greek Problem', the great Black Hole of European finance, continues, and there is certainly evidence that the Greeks may have to pull out of the Eurozone. But as Angela and Nicky refuse to allow increased spending by governments like Greece, it forces unemployment and economic contraction, and leads to a lack of tax revenues; increasing the likelihood of default on sovereign debt, forcing the European Central Bank to intervene with more emergency bailout loans, just so the Greek government doesn't default on bonds already issued, to raise money to pay back loans already received...

This has been the cycle with Greece, twice in the past two years, and it may simply end with them leaving the Eurozone. Angela and Nicky are trying hard to prevent that -- with finances as interconnected as they are, a meltdown of Greece (or any 'at risk' Eurozone nation) could mean the unraveling of the Euro and the EU.

And in these days of interdependent, counterparty-risk financing, if that happens it will adversely affect whatever kind of recovery we begin to have here in America.

Courtesy of Calculated Risk, here are some key dates for the Eurozone to keep in mind as it rapidly turns into the Twilight Zone:

Euro zone finance ministers will decide on Monday what terms of a Greek debt restructuring they are ready to accept as part of a second bailout package for Athens after negotiators for private creditors said they could not improve their offer...

Once the guidance from the finance ministers, known as the Eurogroup, is clear, talks on the restructuring could be finalized later in the week.

• Jan 30th: European Union leaders meet in Brussels on debt crisis
• Feb 9th: ECB holds rate meeting
• Feb 20th: Euro-area finance ministers meet in Brussels
• Feb 29th to March 1st: Italy redeems [has to pay bondholders] 46.5 billion euros of bonds
• March 1st and 2nd: EU leaders meet in Brussels
• March 8th: ECB holds rate meeting
• March 12th: Euro-area finance ministers meet in Brussels
• March 20th: Greece redeems [has to pay bondholders] 14.4 billion euros of bonds
• March 30th: Euro-area finance ministers meet in Copenhagen

Late April: Proposed date for Greek general election.
April 22nd: France holds a presidential election.

---

MEHR: ...and, Europe edges closer to the Schwarzschild Radius of the Greek Black Hole:

(Reuters) - Greece was clinging on Tuesday to hope of a last-minute bond swap deal to avoid a messy default ...

Athens is desperate for a deal within days to ensure funds from a 130 billion euro rescue plan drawn up by European partners and the International Monetary Fund arrive before 14.5 billion euros bond redemptions fall due in March.

After weeks of haggling with creditors in Athens, euro zone finance ministers in Brussels on Monday dealt a sharp setback to those hopes by rejecting creditors' demand for a 4 percent coupon, or interest rate, on new, longer-dated bonds in exchange for existing debt.

---

Donnerwetter: Noch Einmal! Boy, do I hate being right.

WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that global growth prospects had dimmed as the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone entered a “perilous new phase.”

Releasing quarterly updates ... the fund cut its estimates of global growth this year to 3.25 percent, from the 4 percent it forecast in September, on “sharply escalated” risks emanating from Europe.

In light of that market uncertainty and sluggish growth, the fund is seeking to raise up to $500 billion in additional lending capacity... calling on the European Union to expand its bailout fund to at least $1 trillion from its current capacity of 440 billion euros, or about $570 billion...

In a speech in Berlin on Monday, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the fund, said: “The longer we wait, the worse it will get. The only solution is to move forward together... The world must find the political will to do what it knows must be done.”

The venue for Lagarde's speech should give it away: She was speaking from the Haus of Angela, and the 'what it knows must be done' that Chrissie mentioned is CodeTalker language for More Austerity! It's Our Only Hope!!

The goal of most European politicians (of EU / Eurozone nations, anyway) is to try and preserve the Euro and the Union -- for economic reasons good and bad, and to preserve a politically unified Europe.

European politicians remember the lessons of their own recent history -- hyperinflation, political instability brought on by economic crisis; trade union strikes and riots; and the rise of fascism. They've bet the Farm on Austerity as the method to weather the current crisis. Their governments have followed Germany and France's insistence that it be so, and Europe's citizens have gone along, so far -- mostly because the full weight of the Austerity programs haven't bitten down hard enough, yet.

Unfortunately, the Realpolitik is that Austerity they've hooked their own political fortunes to will not solve Europe's interconnected economic problems -- their own governments may eventually collapse under a tide of unpopularity when their own people can't take 'Austerity' any more. And in the process, the Euro and the European Union may cease to exist.

---

Noch Enimal Mit Unmöglichkeit !

Little Angela, Die Eisener Frau, says Ooopsie !

Angela Merkel has cast doubt for the first time on Europe's chances of saving Greece from financial meltdown and sovereign default, conceding that Europe's first ever multibillion bailout coupled with savage austerity was not working after two years of crisis that has brought the single currency to the brink of unravelling.

Ha ha ha ha; sorry about that, Greeks. No hard feelings?

Days before the latest crucial EU summit, which – at Merkel's insistence and evoking scant enthusiasm elsewhere – is to finalise an international treaty between eurozone governments entrenching German-style fiscal and budgetary rigour in all single currency countries, the chancellor admitted to having doubts about the strategy she has pursued throughout the crisis...

With Europe's worst ever crisis moving into its third year, the chancellor is facing growing resistance to her key aim at Monday's summit – finalising the "fiscal compact" treaty that is the euro's new rulebook, foreseeing quasi-automatic fines for fiscal sinners... and establishing legally binding debt ceilings for eurozone governments.

The treaty would enshrine the German model of fiscal and monetarist rigour as binding on the eurozone, in effect outlawing Keynesian economics.

Criticism of the pact and the Merkel policy is getting louder. "A lot of time and energy wasted for nothing," Luxembourg's foreign minister, Jean Asselborn, told Der Spiegel ... Last week, a Finnish cabinet minister also attacked the treaty as having more to do with German domestic politics than with saving the euro.

But Berlin looks certain to get its way since it says there will be no new permanent euro bailout fund being established a year early in July without agreement on the new treaty.

Opponents say the pact will do little to stem the immediate crisis. The Germans insist in the medium-term it will prevent a repeat of the profligacy that caused the near-collapse in the first place.

And that means More Austerity!!

And that's Jenga.

---

Kleiner Mann, Was Nun?

Gingrich Appeals To The Lowest Common Denominator



The New York Time's editorial this morning:

Newt Gingrich won the primary by a decisive margin of 12.5 percentage points, and there is no mystery about how he did it. Two-thirds of voters interviewed in exit polls said they made their decision on the basis of the two South Carolina debates, where Mr. Gingrich exploited racial resentment and hatred of the news media to connect with furious voters... He had a much better sense of the raw, destructive anger at President Obama swirling around a highly conservative and combative state, and he reflected it back to voters everywhere he went.

Mitt Romney is the candidate of the old-line GOP, the party who represents the status quo of the wealthy, and corporate America.

When the Rethugs rule, the rich get rich. Business goes its own way with little regulation or enforcement of laws. And when internet, or Real Estate and derivative Bubbles burst, the poor get laid off; fuck 'em.

Mitt Romney is a candidate that understands all this in his bones, and can be counted on to be a good, genial empty suit for the media. That's all "The President" needs to be, as far as the GOP is concerned.

(The Democratic Party represents the interests of the wealthy and corporations, too... but their price for maintaining that class structure has been concessions in the form of social legislation.

(Under Democratic governments, the rich still get rich -- but at a much slower pace. And in exchange, All The People get Medicare and Social Security; fairer tax codes; legislation to ensure more equal treatment in society and the workplace; standards for cleaner air and water, meat and produce, medicines, and consumer products; and, more regulation of a predatory Market and Financial sector.

(This limits business, and the wealthy. They don't like it. They don't give a damn about The People, who are only good as serfs employees, or consumers. They'd prefer a Gilded Age world without bothersome limits or barriers to their desires -- and Republican politicians embody this social Darwinism more nakedly and completely than the Democrats.)

It was Mr. Gingrich who pulled the race into the gutter, where he found considerable support. He repeatedly called Mr. Obama “the greatest food-stamp president in American history,” and lectured a black questioner at Monday’s debate about the amount of federal handouts to blacks, suggesting their work ethic was questionable.

On Thursday, in the derisive tones of a radio talk-show host, he said Mr. Obama’s cabinet looked like Mickey Mouse and Goofy. At that night’s debate, he lashed into the moderator for asking a perfectly reasonable question about his ex-wife’s allegation that he wanted an open marriage, saying it was typical of an “elite media” that was trying to protect the president by attacking Republicans.

Newt Gingrich is despicable, precisely because he so openly panders to the worst of human instincts -- hatred and fear; the cherished Rightist belief that 'white, working Americans' are victimized by immigrants and other racial groups; and now, that 'christians' are victimized by a secular world. He does this because he wants to win. Period.

If you've watched Newt in the Rethug debates, he speaks in the voice of a high school political science teacher. When compared to the barking of a Rick Perry, the scratchy whine of Ron Paul or Rick Santorum, and then watch Romney stumbling, as if to say "I'm A Smart Guy Too!", Gingrich's verbal ability makes him appear Presidential. If I were a conservative, I'd be impressed enough by that political simulacrum of intellect.

It's been observed that Newt can't be the candidate of the Old Boys who run the GOP. As Speaker of the House, he made too many enemies within his own party. The Old Boys may have been willing to put up with the arrogance and corruption of a Tom DeLay, but only because he was so much like them. Gingrich isn't; his I'm-The-Smartest-Kid-In-The-Room attitude makes them feel inferior.

And while the Old Boys have always seen lying and extramarital sex as just another Perk of Village power, by sleeping around, Gingrich made himself and the GOP vulnerable. The Democrats (in the hated person of The Clenis, no less) were willing to exploit it, and forced Gingrich to muzzle himself voluntarily in the 1998 mid-term elections (Newt -- who was thumping the current Mrs. Gingrich having an extramarital affair just as he called for Clinton's impeachment, must've found an exquisite amount of Schadenfreude in the Clenis' predicament).

Gingrich may have been the 'intellectual engine' of the 1992 Rethug takeover of the House, enough to be elected Speaker, but he was no Dennis Hastert. The Old-Boy GOP leadership never felt comfortable around him. Gingrich was not (like Reagan) The Genial Dad. The Old-Boys like figureheads who reflect their self-image back, mirror-like -- proof that despite the damage they do to America and around the world, they really are good people.

Gingrich isn't really recognized as one of them. In the Old Boy's estimation, he's more out for Newt than for The Party, meaning their status quo. As a result, they've been doing whatever they can to ensure Mitt Romney is the candidate that runs against Obama in the fall.

In response, Gingrich appears to be threatening their control of the GOP by appealing to more radical, extreme conservative voters. He's saying to the party leadership, You reject me? Well, then fuck you. Let's see who runs things. So, the contest for the Republican nomination becomes more about Gingrich's hurt fee-fees than the public good -- no real surprise, in politics. And Gingrich understands how The Village, and GOP politics, works. Power politics, being The Insider, is his metier.

South Carolina was a preview of the kind of campaign Gingrich would run as candidate. Before more moderate audiences, he'd speak in an academic, intellectual way about history and economics and Obama's poor, liberal choices we can't afford. But for another audience, his remarks will resonate: You are all victims of Barack Obama, a Black, n-word; a liberal -- and you know what they're like.

With a nod and a wink, he'll attempt to link Obama with every negative racial stereotype possible. And if he's called out because of it, Gingrich will dissemble and obfuscate, and talk talk talk. And continue doing it. Between appealing to some Republicans as The Really Smart Kid, and others as the voice of victimized, marginalized white America, Gingrich will develop his constituency.

Romney may try using his PACs for waves of anti-Gingrich, negative advertising ahead of other primaries... but Newt could claim to be the victim of Romney's money.

If Gingrich wins enough in the primaries, a nasty televised floor fight at the GOP convention might be the result, and Gingrich knows the Old Boys are already asking themselves if that's worth it. They may decide that unifying the party early behind one front-runner, having more time to repeat anti-Obama messages, over and over and over through Little Rupert's media machine, is better than a long public show of their party's internal divisions.

At some point, if Gingrich has snapped up enough delegates, the Old Boys may reluctantly agree that he's the candidate -- just to maintain as much power in the party as possible. They will want to limit the influence of radicals, Tea Partei and 'values voters', unashamed of their hatred for liberals (and minorities), whom Gingrich knowingly appealed to and made his big win in South Carolina possible.

The Old Boys will tell themselves that six months after the general election, everybody will forget that to defeat Barack Obama, the GOP permitted, even encouraged, a virtual lynching.

[Gingrich's remarks were] just what South Carolina voters wanted to hear, the signal that he would not only challenge Mr. Obama but work to bloody him, to destroy his dignity. As one voter told a reporter, “I think we’ve reached a point where we need someone who’s mean”...

In his victory speech, he even descended into Rick Perry territory by accusing the “elite media” of anti-religion bias. Is that really what Republicans across the country want from their nominee, or is South Carolina, with its history of acute racial tension and contrarianism, simply sending a singular, extreme message?

I'd hope that South Carolina was a one-time thing, that the bulk of America's Republicans are more moderate. I'd hope that the leadership of the Republican party wouldn't attempt the impossible, to turn back the clock of civil rights and racial awareness in America, just to take back control of the White House (Sadly, I do think they're stupid enough to attempt just that).

Little Man, Now What? I'd hope for a Romney candidacy, if I were you -- not because Mitt wouldn't do some pandering of his own; but because the coalition of Rethug voters he would build might be more mainstream, less Batshit crazy, Troglodyte Haley Barbour / Jim Sessions Sesesh-Type Volk. That his campaign might, just might be one step up from the sewer Herr Gingrich likes to swim in.

Romney is a Mitwisser -- literally, "With-Knowing"; someone who has knowledge of an event and so gives consent. He may be a wealthy, disconnected conservative, but driving his presidential campaign with the kind of hate and division that comes so easily to Herr Gingrich isn't his style. More likely, he would let other scum elements in the Rethug All-Star constellation do that for him while he remains 'above the fray'.

---

Noch Einmal, Mit Schwein: ... and the Mittwisser proves me wrong by asking the musical question, "Can I Dog-Whistle As Good As Newt?", or, "Way Down Upon The Swinee".

---

Mongo Thinks About Chuck Some More

Because Sometimes The Universe Works


(Sean Beaver, Darkness Into Light; O/C 30 X 40 Inches [2005])

---

The Guy Next Door Has Bedbugs

So Life's Going To Be... Interesting For A While

Last week, I was advised that the dweller in the unit next to me discovered bedbugs. There's been a certain amount of spraying in his unit, and all those surrounding his, including mine.

No signs of any unpaying roommates so far. It's possible that the infestation was caught early enough; but, who knows. I've just spent the weekend doing two things -- preparing for the possibility of losing most of my possessions, bagging up all the clothes I own, separating out the books I want to keep before any Arthropods might show up.

And I have several hundred books, collected over twenty-plus years; most of them are in bookcases against the common wall I share with Herr Infecto's unit, in a building built in 1908 after the San Francisco earthquake and fire burned out 90% of Nob Hill. Arthropods like books.

I've equated aspects of my life with my possessions -- they represent stability, security, in a world spinning with change. They're twined with my self-image, separating me from others; in my mind, helping to define my uniqueness. The possibility of losing those Things means losing that self-image, breaking down what I assume to be Me.

Any time during the next six weeks, I'll know if the infestation has spread to my unit. One way or another, I'll be jettisoning a lot of things, paring down. This is something I've thought about doing for at least a year. So, perhaps it's useful, a reflection of a desire for growth and change.

It's not precisely like waiting for a medical diagnosis, but it's close.

Change is stressful. And even if I end up scrubbing my life down to only the most essential items and moving on forward, I still have to live a life -- such as it is -- and work at a job (also in the process of changing); try my best to be a Mensch, a friend, a human being.

At the moment, Greece's continuing debt crisis; Iran's tub-thumping nationalism and America's 'line-in-the-sand' diplomacy; and Mitt Romney's nation of 'Quiet Rooms' doesn't seem so important. So posting may be light for a while.

---

Reprint Heaven: They Make Commercials

Get Out Your Buckets And Be Prepared To Use Them

I was in a laundromat early this morning; its owners unlock the doors at about 6:00AM, daily, turn on a local TopPop radio station, and leave until 10:00PM. While loading up the washer, I listened to a commercial for a local supermarket chain -- a woman's voice, telling me how certain produce items remind her of her childhood, of "the smell after my dad cut the lawn ... how my mom made lemonade... it all just reminded me of times and things you could count on."

We live in times when Citizens in the trenches are manipulated, daily, for our vote, our support; our money. This commercial was attempting to link buying things at Safeway™ with the idea of safer, more secure times, with childhood fun, mom and dad, and the smell of fresh-cut grass.


Safe And Secure, With The Smell Of Fresh-Cut Grass:
Memories From Everybody's Childhood -- Aren't They?

You know, childhood -- I mean, for those lucky enough to grow up in a house, with both a mom and a dad, and an actual lawn. Not like growing up in an inner-city housing project with Food Stamps, people smoking Rock on the stoop and fifteen-year-olds turning tricks, gang-bangers fighting for the Turf you live on and schools where pat searches happen every day.

I listened to the commercial because I didn't have a choice, and looked around for a bucket to throw up in. Then, on the Intertubes, I found something worse.



Nissan motors has recently released a teevee commercial (see it here) for it's newly-released electric auto, the 'Leaf'.



It features a big and cuddly actual Polar Bear, actual melting ice caps; a long journey, and a knowledgeable Consumer, whose smart "Earth-friendly" choice makes a friend out of Little Knut Of The Berlin Zoo, thereby proving that the motivations of animals are really just as reasonable and well-considered as our own.



Part of me thinks it's a well-made piece of commercial teevee work, knowing something about Maya and 3DMax, alpha-channel and traveling mattes, and I'm impressed with the result -- even more impressed that anyone has been able to train a Polar Bear, the largest land carnivore on the planet -- our 21st Century version of a furry T-Rex in the animal world.



The spot ends with the cute 'n cuddly Polar Bear giving (all right, I'll say it) a bear hug to the Consumer for purchasing a 2010 Nissan 'Leaf' electric car. Another part of me expects that the Polar Bear would rip the Consumer's face off and eat it.



The human being in me thinks this commercial is a typical corporate response: Identify the problem (solutions to which can affect our sales of, uh, 'hydrocarbon-based transportation delivery systems') with something cute and cuddly (therefore making it less 'serious' and more 'managable'). Then, identify the product in the mind of the viewer / listener with 'cute 'n cuddly'. Finally, use catchy images or phrases that will get people talking and go viral, and thereby boost sales, leading to profits, and I want to puke in a bucket.


"How's This? Cute And Cuddly Enough For You? Huh? Huh?
And By The Way -- You Didn't Even Taste That Good!!"

Has Nissan announced that the threat of Global Warming is so serious that they are immediately terminating their production of internal-combustion-engine vehicles, and will now produce nothing but electric automobiles for sale? No? Well, then this is just a cute, imaginative come-on from the propaganda arm of The Capitalist Structure We're Immersed In, and the big problem it references still exists.


Satellite View Of Southeastern Coast Of The United States,
With Projections Of Results Of 15-Foot Rise In Sea Levels
-- But, It's All Hippie Crap, And Anyway We'll Be Dead
(Image Based On 2007 NASA Report By Dr. James Hansen)

I'm only a dog, and no one listens to me. No one listens to the bears, either -- and sadly, they'll go extinct before Nissan does.

---

A Nation Turns Its Lonely Eyes

New Hampsha


(CBS News Graphic, January 9, 2011)

Sitting on a sofa on a [Tuesday] afternoon,
Going to the candidates' debate;
Laugh about it, shout about it,
When you've got to choose
Every way you look at it, you lose

"Mrs. Robinson"
Simon and Garfunkle (1968)

---

Avarice

Der Untergang Starts Somewhere

As everyone gets so excited about the pending "vote" in New Hampshire to determine which Retrograde Tool Of Capital gets the Cream Pie in this month's Rethug Clown Contest...

Just a few months before two of Bear-Stearns' Real-Estate-Derivative Investment Funds began to implode, as Barry Ritzholtz's The Big Picture reminds us: On January 10, 2007, Little Rupert's Newsy-Truthy Wall Street Journal published an article entitled "Plutonomics" (I don't like linking to any of Rupert's crap on principle, but if you must, go read it here).

"It was written by of all folks, Citigroup global strategist Ajay Kapur", Ritzholtz writes. "In 2005, Kapur’s research team “came up with the term ‘Plutonomy’ ... to describe a country that is defined by massive income and wealth inequality."

According to Kapur's research team, their definition meant that the United Statesis a Plutonomy, along with the U.K., Canada and Australia.”

What are the basic characteristics of Plutonomies? According to Kapur:

• They are all created by “disruptive technology-driven productivity gains, creative financial innovation, capitalist friendly cooperative governments, immigrants…the rule of law and patenting inventions. Often these wealth waves involve great complexity exploited best by the rich and educated of the time.”
• There is no “average” consumer in Plutonomies. There is only the rich “and everyone else.” The rich account for a disproportionate chunk of the economy, while the non-rich account for “surprisingly small bites of the national pie.” Kapur estimates that in 2005, the richest 20% may have been responsible for 60% of total spending.
• Plutonomies are likely to grow in the future, fed by capitalist-friendly governments, more technology-driven productivity and globalization.

Kapur also noted the impact massive income and wealth inequality had on other aspects of the economy: Savings rates, national debt level, spending patterns, reaction to high commodity prices, and more. All of these, he claimed are substantially affected by the ultra wealthy.

Note that this was from 5 years ago today — circa January 2007 was, ten months before the market peaked, 11 months before the Great Recession began, and 15 months before Bear Stearns, 21 months before Wall Street (AIG BAC C FNM LEH, etc.) collapsed, and about 55 months before Occupy Wall Street began.

Interestingly, in February of 2007, a month after publishing this article, Kapur quit Citigroup to found a Hong-Kong-based hedge fund, First Horse Capital. Sixteen months after opening, the firm shut down on June 17, 2008. Kapur now works for DeutscheBank in New York.

As Goethe once wrote, We do not have to visit a madhouse to find disordered minds; our planet is the mental institution of the universe.

---