Lawrence Summers, President Obama's top economic advisor, predicted today on ABC (see the report by the New York Times) that by the spring of 2010, the ranks of working Americans will start to grow again.
"We've walked back from the brink -- and never mind what we [the administration] say; most professional forecasters are looking for a return to job growth by the spring," Summers said. "I think everybody agrees, the Recession's over..."
...and that has been the rising opinion offered by most publicly-quoted Wall Street forecasters and other flacks -- The Recession's over! Job losses have slowed, and they're gonna grow -- maybe not so fast; but then, ya gotta be patient!! Everything's gonna be just like it was again!!
American Banks, and Goldman-Sachs, are making more money than ever. It's even been given to them, for nothing. Taking all of the unemployed in the country into account (including those working at reduced hours and pay), nearly twenty per cent of the teenage and adult populations which could be working, aren't.
For whom is it going to be the same, again? Will the so-called 'Recovery' benefit a few, and not most, in America? Will it have contributed to wider gaps between wealth, and the working poor and real poverty? Will our cities limp along with fewer busses, less safe water, fewer firehouses; higher crime, dirtier streets, more crowded classrooms, higher tuition and fewer electives? And while a certain segment of the population continues to live very, very well?
But, we're not supposed to say that. Smacks of Communism, or disloyalty to Free Market™ principles; or being uppity and not knowing our place in the Brave, New Order.
Paul Krugman, winner of the 2008 Nobel Prize in Economics and regular columnist for the Times, completely disagrees with the notion that the Recession is over -- and on the subject of job creation, has this to say:
I don’t think many people grasp just how much job creation we need to climb out of the hole we’re in. You can’t just look at the eight million jobs that America has lost since the recession began, because the nation needs to keep adding jobs — more than 100,000 a month — to keep up with a growing population. And that means that we need really big job gains, month after month, if we want to see America return to anything that feels like full employment.
How big? My back of the envelope calculation says that we need to add around 18 million jobs over the next five years, or 300,000 jobs a month.
This puts last week’s employment report, which showed job losses of “only” 11,000 in November, in perspective. It was basically a terrible report, which was reported as good news only because we’ve been down so long that it looks like up to the financial press.
How these jobs will be created, when the administration is still sleeping with the Banksters (who have no incentive whatsoever to lend, which is a prerequisite to creating any jobs), doing little if anything to regulate a pack of hyenas run wild, is beyond me.
This implosion of the economy, caused by a relatively small group of men and supported by the entire financial structure of the United States, has been just short of horrific.
A return to The way things used to be is not what we should be hoping for -- it's normal to want it, but it's impossible. And, those who voted for Obama and Democratic candidates in 2006 and 2008 did so (just one Dog's opinion) because people know the game is fixed. They want systemic change -- real regulation of the financial industry; real health care; less politicization of government bureaucracies. Something more than the usual political lip service politicians like Lil' Boots gave to equality and basic fairness.
I wonder if the President and his people realize any of that.
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