Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Is It Possible These Parades Are The Same

 4:58 PM PST (7:58 EST)

We watch the returns as they come in. Is it "liberation"? It is "Triumph Des Willens"?

The conclusion of this night will result in our playing the Second Movement of  Brahms's A German Requiem, or something suitably John Phillips Sousa-like

Aus Funf / Acht-und-Dreizig dotcom, where they are being suitably cautious. Let's wait and see!

According to our final presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state, and a lot of Biden’s chances in the Electoral College hinge on what happens in the Keystone State. He leads Trump there by about 5 points in our polling average, but it’s not as large a margin as Biden might like.

Last week, we gamed out what would happen if Biden lost Pennsylvania but won other Midwestern states like Wisconsin. (...there’s no clear Plan B for Biden.) ...

Unless Trump or Biden has a really good night ... it’s pretty unlikely, though, that either of them will hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win by the end of the night. That doesn’t necessarily mean, though, that we won’t have a pretty good idea of who won. 

It’s all going to come down to how close some of the key battleground races are and whether a representative share of the vote can be reported, which won’t always be possible given the challenges of the pandemic. We’re tracking when we expect results in every state.
Please to keep this in mind as we go forward. 

5:33 PM PST (8:33 PM EST)

PBS' Oh-So-Neutral News Hour has a number of political analysts commenting as the results come in -- including Eliana Johnson, 'Editor-In-Chief' of the Washington Free Beacon.

Per The Atlantic, the Beacon's founder "told Politico ... 'Andrew Breitbart pioneered the new approach. His websites were dedicated, impassioned, and broke news. Glenn Beck exposed White House czar Van Jones's radical, 9/11-Truth past. Guerilla journalist James O'Keefe performed sting operations that led to ACORN, Planned Parenthood, and NPR having very bad days. Tucker Carlson's website, The Daily Caller, published excerpts ... which showed liberal writers coordinating their party line.' " 

Why does PBS legitimize a mouthpiece for the kind of lying, bullshit propaganda of an O'Keefe or Carlson? These people are apologists for white supremacists -- the White Supremacist In Chief, primarily. Why feed them; why allow anyone to think 'The Beacon' has as much gravitas as a legitimate new organization? It's like claiming a Kangaroo is an Ostrich.

And, Arkansas projected for Trumpo The Murder Clown. Also, Tom Cotton, racist who self-copulates, is reelected. Of course he is.

6:35 PM PST (9:35 PM EST)

Early votes continue to come in, and states are being counted and called, as if it was any other national election. Trumpo has said he doesn't intend to claim victory at his Whitey Haus party, but he lies.  In the 'battleground' 'tossup' states like Pennsylvania, Florida; Michigan, Arizona, there is little information.

It seems clear that Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will be the states which decide this public contest.  However, in looking at Pennsylvania, various county elections commissioners are saying they will not be declaring just an initial wave of vote counts until roughly midnight Eastern time (9:00 PM Pacific time, or two-and-a-half hours away). Another wave of vote tallies will be reported sometime tomorrow morning -- but no final counts.

Colorado called for Biden, along with Maryland and Vermont. A number of pundits are first saying Biden has done well in places, then hedging and saying oh it's very close; so close. Huh.

Eliana Johnson, who hearts James O'Keefe and Glamorous Glenny Beck, chimes in; it's so warm and comforting that a True Trumper who drinks Flavor-Aid straight from the Washtub In Front Of The Pavilion tells us what American voters believe and want.

Oh; Madison Carlson in North Carolina, who lied about his military service and turned buying a home with a medical settlement into being a "real estate investor", has been elected to the House of Representatives.  Likewise, Marjorie Taylor Greene -- who hearts QAnon and believes the universe is shaped like a burrito, and that there should be tests for witchcraft by dunking women in ponds, also won in Georgia for a House seat.

Of course they have. If you live in other countries, I don't recommend going to North Carolina or Georgia.

7:05 PM PST (10:05 PM EST)

Jamie Harrison has been declared to have lost in his bid to unseat "Lady G" Lindsey Graham from his senate seat in South Carolina. Harrison's campaign spent over $50 Million, and had seemed very close in polls for weeks.  We will still have to endure the nasty, waspish bitch that Graham is.

John Cornyn, a complete asshole, will return to the Senate from Texas.  Ah, Texas.  And In Alabama, Democrat Doug Jones is beaten by Republican Tommy Tubberville. 

And, Trumpo The Murder Clown declared the winner in Kansas.  North Carolina, with 88% of the expected vote counted, is 49% Trump, 49% Biden.  

It is announced that 91% of the projected total votes in Florida have been counted -- Trump 51%,  Biden 48%.

In Michigan, with 32% of the votes counted -- 56% Trump, 42% Biden.

In Wisconsin, with 38% of the expected votes -- 51% Trump; Biden 42%.

7:50 PM PST (10:50 PM EST)

Not good news:  I am hearing analysts on the major mainstream media outlets (CBS; MSNBC; PBS; ABC) all reporting that their "sources in the Biden campaign" are 'very concerned' about Day-Of vote totals in key states. There does not seem to be a 'Blue Wave' occurring, or anything like it.

The map of the US they're referring to is appearing predominantly Red, at the moment -- states trending for Trump. As many expected, this contest really does seem to hinge on how the voting goes in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Counting all votes in these states will not be accomplished tonight, or even tomorrow.

I am toying with the idea of watching two back-to-back Battlestar Galactica episodes, then going to bed; I have a 6AM meeting and that's just the start of my day.

Obligatory Cute Small Animal Photo In Middle Of Blog Ogg Ogg

9:00 PM PST (Midnight, EST)

The talk from last week, even earlier today, of a Democratic landslide, a repudiation of Trump and Trumpism, hasn't materialized.  Trump is outperforming his 2016 efforts -- meaning more Crackers are voting for him in greater percentages than four years ago -- in key districts of the states he is projected to carry.

ABC News has chose some name personas to act as commentators and analysts -- Chris Christie and Rahm Emanuel, for example.  Christie (who helped prep Trump for his debates with Biden, and was probably infected with Covid by The Leader) says flatly that the Republicans' ground game is better, and that their polling and estimates are based on better methodology than the Democrats'. The more their estimates prove true, the more they will believe they can win: Simple.

Emanuel says well, in states where Trump is leading, there are still Democratic-stronghold areas to be counted and those numbers could tip the scales to Biden -- but while Christie seems confident, Emanuel's reasoning feels hollow. He could still be right, but I sense worry. This night is not unfolding the way the Democrats expected.

One analyst chimed in to say that in Michigan, the current totals showing Trump with a lead will change; she noted the current numbers are only today's in-person-vote totals. No mail-in ballots have been tallied yet, and Democrats traditionally do well with them. While that was a more fact-based assertion than Emanuel's, she didn't seem entirely convinced by her own argument.

Again, everything seems to be coming down to one, or two states. Biden has 192 Electoral Votes at this point (based on estimates, not officially-certified vote totals) to Trump's 118.  It takes 270 to win.

Pennsylvania has some 2.5 million mail-in ballots to count, statewide. In Philadelphia, it was announced by elections commissioners there that they are only processing some 10,000 an hour, and that they were suspending the count until tomorrow morning in that urban county. Partly, a labor issue, but also a recognition that getting the entire state's vote total accounted for will take time.

10:15 PM PST (1:15 AM EST)

Biden appeared in Wilmington, Delaware, and gave a short 'rally-the-troops' speech, saying "we're very confident" that he will win the election, and lauded his supporters for their patience. 

Almost immediately afterwards, Iowa and Florida were called for Trump. Texas has been declared 'likely'. Lindsey Graham, in the spirit of conciliation, accepted his challenger's concession by saying "all the money from New York and California" contributed to the Democrats yielded a "poor return on investment". 

Then, it was announced on PBS that Trump was Tweeting as Biden spoke: 
"We are up BIG but they are trying to STEAL the election. We will never let them do that. Votes cannot be cast after the polls are closed!" 
Yamiche Alcindor, who reported Trump's comment, referred to his comments as "baseless... offered no evidence" and similar to his comments earlier this year that the 'only way they can win is if the election is rigged'.  Trump's staff announced that he, too would speak to the nation soon.

Just can't wait.

11:05 PM PDT (2:05 AM EST, November 4, 2020)

The Mad King will speak from a podium in the East Room of the Whitey Haus, in front of a background of American flags. Trumpo threw a poll-watching party there tonight for some 400 guests, but has not been seen. Apparently he's been meeting with Attorney General Barr and 'economic advisors' -- but Vice-President Pence is not there, which some think is notable. The guests reportedly have not been wearing masks; the media has to depend on a few pool reporters to share information on the soiree, and otherwise have no idea who is attending.

Trumpo keeps everyone waiting. That seems to be a thing with dictators; they never appear on time, because they are in control. You can wait. I'm tuned to CBS, and their reporters and analysts are filling in the time talking about control of the Senate. Wait wait wait.

There are, we are told, "millions of ballots in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that have [still] not been counted" and that elections volunteers are working through the night; a testament to our Democracy.

11:20 PM PST (2:20 AM EST, November 4, 2020)

Junior, Eric, Ivanka walk in; a theatrical announcement, as if this was a game show, and Trumpo the Murder Clown appears to cheers and "Hail to the Chief".

"... A very sad group of people is trying to disenfranchise [Trump voters] and we will not stand for it... we were getting ready for a big celebration, and it was just called off! We were set to get outside and celebrate... to support our movement... The returns came in, 'they're never gonna catch us; they can't catch us'... and we don't need all the states; Arizona; we didn't need it, okay..."

He rambles. He claims they are "winning Pennsylvania by a tremendous amount of votes... we're up by 690,000 votes... with 64% of the votes coming in, it's impossible to catch us..."

He goes on. The election "is off... they knew they couldn't win, so they went to court-- did I tell you this Newt, that's what they would do?... all of a sudden things, just stopped. This is a fraud on the American public... and we did win this election... We will go to the U.S. Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop..."

So, he did exactly what he said he wouldn't do (He lied. Big surprise). He's saying votes people cast that have not been counted will be contested as illegal. He spent half the time he spoke listing each state he has (apparently) won; and his message is that he believes he'd already won. 

He said it weeks ago: he has no intention of accepting the election, if not in his favor. He will be asking that all current counting of votes cease, and take it to the Supreme Court, where Amy Barrett is warming up in the bullpen.

On PBS, some right-wing 'freelance journalist' chides viewers that all will be well, and that he doesn't think anything of how Trump speaks, and that no one takes it seriously. The system will work.


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