Friday, February 11, 2011

Hauling Hosni

Egyptian Army Reportedly In Control

(Screenshot: CNN Live Feed From Egypt As Of 7:00AM PST)

The New York Times online reports:
CAIRO —The Egyptian military appeared to assert its leadership Friday amid growing indications that President Hosni Mubarak was yielding all power. A Western official said that Mr. Mubarak had left the capital, though that could not be independently confirmed. ...

The Associated Press, citing a local official, said that Mr. Mubarak had flown to the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheik, about 250 miles from Cairo, where he maintains a residence.

Angry protesters, who had swarmed by the thousands into the streets here Friday morning, were hardly mollified by the news of Mr. Mubarak’s exit and an accompanying statement by the Supreme Council of the Egyptian Armed Forces over state television and radio indicating that the military, not Mr. Mubarak, was in effective control of the country...

It was unclear whether the military would take meaningful steps toward democracy or embark on a new military dictatorship.

Watching NileTV from Egypt via CNN at the moment; thousands of people standing outside an army cordon, but the soldiers are throwing bags of water or food to some in the crowd, which appears to be in and around the Presidential palace.

NileTV Reporter In The Crowd, Speaking Via Cellphone

A NileTV Reporter is down in the crowd with what appears to be a hand-held radiophone ('walkie-talkie') in one hand, and a Blackberry in the other, talking in one, then the other, back and forth. He's interviewing what appear on occasion to be organizers of the demonstrators, and at other times Guys In The Street, telling the stories or making statements. That sounds normal, to us. In Egypt, it's utterly without precedent.

Try to imagine not being able to express an opinion about your government unless in praise of it. Now, people are standing in the street by the thousands, and can make statements via the national television of a major Arabic nation, saying whatever they want about Mubarak and current events -- and not ending up in jail? Incredible.

(Of course, here, we allow a rainbow of free public discourse -- which means you end up with Evangelicals and White Power crazies and Teabaggers, centrists and Buddhists; Greenpeace, Code Pink and Earth First. So go figure.)

What I'm watching is also being seen in a number of countries in the Arabic world. I imagine the House of Saud must be feeling a little unsettled these days. I can also imagine Osama and his buddies are following this very closely. And Hamas. And Hezbollah. And the Iranians.

And, you can see cell phones being used by demonstrators as they mill around, talking and texting; this is a digital revolution, baby; and it is being televised.

CNN's in-studio translator can't keep up; there is lots of shouting, and people seem to be unhappy (predictably, for a revolution). I'm not getting the sense that the situation is clear for the demonstrators or anyone else.


The protestors are united in their demand that Mubarak leave office and relinquish all control. As it's been reported, this will trigger automatic national elections within 60 days, and a certain amount of chaos.

This is not what the U.S. wants: Our position, as stated by Obama and Secretary Of State Clinton, has been for an "orderly" transfer of power, which was why we were satisfied with Mubarak's announcement that he would step down in September when his term in office was set to expire.

It appears a majority of people in Egypt have, uh, other ideas.


Thursday, February 10, 2011

The Ceauşescu Syndrome

Random Barking: Hosni's Last Stand


On December 22, 1989, the corrupt dictator of Romania, Nicolae Ceauşescu, walked out to a podium and microphones on a balcony of the Central Committee building in Romania's capital, Bucharest, overlooking its main square.

Ceauşescu had run the country's Communist party since the mid 1960's, but the last ten years of his regime was (per Wikipedia) "characterized by an increasingly erratic personality cult, nationalism and a deterioration in foreign relations with the Western powers as well as the Soviet Union."

He infamously enriched himself and various party cronies, constructed gigantic public buildings and statues (to himself) on a Stalinesque scale, while the Romanian people became increasingly impoverished. Like many other Eastern Bloc countries, the Romanian secret police operated at will -- as in Mubarak's Egypt (at least, until January 26th), to criticize or denigrate The corrupt Party, The Leader, or the Leader's wife, Elena (apparently every bit as twisted, avaricious and imperious as her dictator husband), would result in arrest and dispatch to a labor camp.

Nikki And Elena's Simple Home In Bucharest, Capital Of Romania

In April of 1989, the 'Solidarity' party gained a majority in the Polish Parliament, and effectively broke 40-plus years of Communist rule. In August, a crowd of several thousand Hungarians at a 'Pan-European Picnic' rushed across the border into Austria, and were not stopped by armed guards. And in November 1989, after mass protests in East Germany, and a relaxing of border controls between West Germany and Czechoslovakia, tens of thousands of East Berliners flooded into West Berlin. The Wall -- a fixture in the city for twenty-eight years, effectively 'came down': Berlin Bleibt Berlin.

The Wall At The Brandenburger Tor: November 11, 1989

At about the same time, a popular revolt against Ceauşescu's regime had begun in Timisoara, one of Romania's larger cities, and quickly spread throughout the country in a matter of days. Ceauşescu's response was to take personal control of the Romanian government and command of its army.

He ordered it to open fire on unarmed demonstrators in various cities, including Bucharest, in an attempt to control the rebellion -- but all it succeeded in doing was the enrage the opposition, and alienate the army, which had never been given orders to fire on civilians before.

So, when Ceauşescu stepped out on the balcony of the Communist headquarters on that morning in December, there were tens of thousands of people in the square below. It was supposed to have been a staged appearance -- a show of popular support for the old freak -- but the crowd wouldn't allow Ceauşescu to speak, chanting and booing him in huge waves. The army, which was supposed to control the crowd with deadly force if necessary, ignored its orders and stood with the protestors.

As Ceauşescu spoke, groups of protestors rushed the Central Committee building and forced their way inside. Romanian state television's broadcast of the moment shows a panicked state security thug approach Ceauşescu and tell him quickly Boss; we gotta Book, right now:

The aging dictator was taken up to the building's roof -- where a helicopter waited, just in case, to allow a getaway. The crowd cheered, watching him leave Bucharest with his wife. Their intention was to find some place to organize a counterstrike to the revolutionaries (Ceauşescu was deluded enough to believe he still had any support), and they landed near the couple's large 'Summer Estate'. Taking off again, they were forced to land a short time later and taken into local custody in the city of Târgoviște, held prisoner in a local school.

As the video above shows, on December 25, 1989 (Merry Exmass, ya murderous scumbag!), Ceauşescu and his wife were tried by a military tribunal "on charges ranging from illegal gathering of wealth to genocide" (according to Wikipedia). The session was videotaped, and broadcast on Romanian state television later that same day.

Ceauşescu and his wife were found guilty and sentenced to death, taken outside the building where the trial took place and "shot almost as soon as they were placed against a wall" (It happened so quickly that the cameraman wasn't ready to videotape the actual shooting). Apparently, there had been hundreds of volunteers to join the firing squad, just from the local population.

Ironically, capital punishment in Romania was outlawed by its new government almost immediately after Nikki and Elena's execution. A number of western observers have indicated that, if Ceauşescu had simply scarpered off left the country, he might have lived.



In Egypt, Mubarak possibly believes he has done everything to appease the popular uprising calling for his exit. That it hasn't reduced the size of the public protests or their demands that Mubarak step down from power, doesn't appear to have fazed him. Today, he made the smallest of concessions in giving additional power to his newly-appointed Vice President, but he didn't get it: He's still there. And nearly everyone wants him gone.

Today, some ominous signs occurred for Mubarek -- doctors in white lab coats, attorneys in western business suits, joined the protestors in Cairo's Tahir Square who have been camped ther in shifts for two weeks. The head of the government's foreign press bureau was locked out of his own offices by his subordinates. The staff of Egypt's state-controlled main newspaper put out their own edition, siding with the public revolution and demanding Mubarek go.

In cities outside Cairo (principally, Luxor and Alexandra), the size of public demonstrations -- mini-Tahir Squares -- are apparently growing. It's clear this isn't a movement limited to a few square miles in the center of Cairo; it's in the minds and hearts of millions of Egyptians. Freedom's contagious that way.

After Mubarek spoke this evening, the protestors watching a projection of the broadcast on an improvised screen in Tahir Square were stunned, then enraged, by the man's arrogance and hubris; What part of get the hell out don't you understand? There have been calls for a 'Sixteen-million-person march' for tomorrow morning, to center on the Presidential Palace, and the state television headquarters.

This is a turning point in the events that began in late January. The Egyptian army has been a neutral force -- supporting the demonstrators simply by doing nothing, generally keeping the peace. However, they can't permit civil disorder on the scale of a mass of protestors seizing control of the Palace or the State Teevee.

If the army uses force, and protestors are killed or injured, the army is Done. They will be identified in the mind of the Protestors In The Street as supporting the Mubarek regime. And since Hosni is showing no intention to relinquish power, the longer this standoff continues, the greater the possibility of more radical action. And the only people who would truly benefit from that are Islamic extremists.

And, where is our government's position in all this? We've taken a cautious (some feel, too cautious) stand viz. Mubarak's grim clinging to power. At the same time, we can't tell him, or any Egyptian, what to do. Still, it isn't an impossibility that Obama could call Hosni and say, Mr. President, we urge you to fully step down.

I'd say that if the Egyptian army's assessment is that massive public demonstrations tomorrow may turn into a faceoff between them and a popular uprising -- then, between now and tomorrow morning, they may confront Mubarak and force him to step down.

Egypt's army is generally well-regarded; it's been the source of stability and government for fifty years. While it represents dictatorship, emergency decrees and strong-man rule, people also remember that it was their army in the 1950's which removed a corrupt, foreign-dominated playboy king, making a leader of the coup, Colonel Gamal Abdul Nasser, Egypt's first President. The Egyptians acquitted themselves well against the vaunted Israeli army during the 1973 war (where Mubarak was an air force commander and fighter pilot).

When Nasser died, another army general, Anwar Sadat, ascended to the Presidency -- and was later assassinated by Islamic radicals because he had signed a peace treaty with Israel. Sadat was succeeded by Mubarak, becoming Egypt's dictator in fact and using the circumstances of Sadat's death as an excuse for a State of Emergency that has lasted 30 years.

The army still has has credibility to act as a unifying force, an 'honest broker' in a transition from dictatorship to real democracy, only so long as it is perceived as neutral. If, by refusing to step down, Mubarak forces them to prevent public buildings from being seized and shoot unarmed demonstrators in the process, then it stands to lose a great deal.

We'll see what happens. I hope, for everyone's sake, that Mubarak simply understands he's Done, and leaves. But I doubt it. I see too much of Ceauşescu in this situation, and no matter what I hope for, it may not end well.


The Dustbin Of History

Just Go, Already

Tahir Square, Cairo, Egypt; As It Appears Right Now
(Photo: Mohammed Abed / Agence France-Presse / NYT)

From the New York Times online at 12:47PM, PST

CAIRO — President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt prepared to address the nation Thursday, with government officials indicating that they expected him to step aside, and Egypt’s military announcing that it is intervening in state affairs in an attempt to stop a three-week-old uprising.

Several government officials said Mr. Mubarak was expected to announce his own resignation and pass authority to his hand-picked vice president, Omar Suleiman. But if the military does assume formal control of the government, it remains uncertain if it would give Mr. Suleiman, a former military officer, a leading role...

State television said in a bulletin that Mr. Mubarak would make a statement tonight. ... However, state TV said that the country’s information minister, Anas El Fekky, had denied that Mr. Mubarak would step down, raising the possibility that he might hand over his executive duties but stay on in a ceremonial role.

As night fell, Egypt and the outside world, confronted with multiple reports all day that suggested everything from a military coup to an incremental enhancement of the power Mr. Mubarak delegates to his closest aides, awaited clarification from Mr. Mubarak on his and the military’s intentions...”



UPDATE:

Mubarak via Live Feed At New York Times Online

Hosni spoke; apparently it was the kind of rambling, disconnected address that can only show how unaware the man is that his Moment In History™ is over. He's been UnFriended on his Facebook page about 40,000,000 times. People are shaking their shoes at him while he's on the big teevee screen in Tahir Square.

All I heard were phrases about not leaving Egypt, being buried there; and lots of Egypt-Is-Wonderful references, and how his newly-appointed Vice-President will assume 'more' administrative powers. Think this can end well?

As if to prove his disconnection from the sources of public resistance, it's because things aren't wonderful in Egypt for many Egyptians that Hosni is on the verge of heading for Switzerland. But he did not say he was leaving.

UPDATE TOO:

Ruh-Roh: Well, that went over so well. The NYT now reports,

BREAKING NEWS 4:05 PM ET
Mubarak Clings to Office; Crowds in Cairo Are Furious


Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Godzilla Did Not Come From Kansas

NOT IN KANSAS ANYMORE AROOOOOOOO!!!


This is a panel from Incidental Comics, a Blog Out 'O The Midwest, which has comics and interesting stories from America's heartland. I like it, and recommend you try liking it, too.

Sadly, it is not accurate about the origins of Godzilla, but I'll let The Big Guy speak for himself:



Oh, God; Not Again

It's That Silvio!
Episode MCMLXVIII: Bunga Bunga



Prosecutor Edmondo Liberati of the city of Milan announced today that his office had enough evidence to ask a judge to waive a preliminary hearing, and call for an immediate trial of Silvio Berlusconi, 74, The Buffono Pene L'Italia, on charges that he paid for sex with a 17-year-old and abused his office by calling the police to intervene on her behalf after she was detained for petty theft in May.

True to form, the Used Condom King of the Boot-Shaped peninsula responded to the press, “I’m sorry that these things" -- and when Silvio! used the word 'things', he meant the prosecutors -- "have offended the dignity of our country, have slung mud on our country and on our government and on me personally, internationally.”

Ha Ha! Hey, lookit dat Silvio, eh?

Soccer Fans In Italy, March 2010 (Photo: Associated Press, via
[Of All Things] The Croatian Soccer Report)

You may recall that the lat time we checked in with the Oligarch who owns a country, Berlusconi had been linked to 17-year-old Karima el-Mahroug, a Moroccan-born rented sex toy nightclub dancer nicknamed "Ruby Heart-Stealer". el-Mahroug had been arrested for petty theft in Milan last May -- and Silvio! called the local police there, personally, to arrange for her release.

At the time (as I've mentioned before), Silvio! said, "I'm a kind-hearted person... There was just a call made to find someone to take custody of a person that we all felt sorry for because she had told everyone a dramatic story that we gave credit to."

Ms. el-Mahroug, Close Personal Friend, At Her Day Job

The Milan prosecutor's office alleges that el-Mahroug had attended dinners at Berlusconi's private villa outside Milan, where she allegedly witnessed group sex games which the Primo Pene L'Europa and his entourage nicknamed 'bunga-bunga' parties.

Prosecutors insist that el-Mahroug -- paid the equivalent of $7,000 to attend the 'parties' -- was released by intervention of the Prime Minister Of Italy on a petty theft charge, simply to make sure she didn't blow the wrong people the whistle on Silvio's! 'Bunga Bunga'.

Today, Berlusconi changed his story, a little. He said that he had called the Milan police to intervene on el-Mahroug’s behalf because... he had been told that she was the niece of President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt.

"I intervened as prime minister because I was concerned that there might be an international diplomatic incident," Silvio! told the press today. "...I always help people in difficulty.”

Girls, Spending Weekend At Silvio's! Villa, 2009, Made
Cell Phone Videos In His Bathroom To Prove They Were There

Think about all the times you arrived home at five in the morning, or later, smelling like a goat, having closed down Vesuvio's or Tosca in North Beach, only to be confronted by a Significant Other who is, uh, less than pleased at your antics? Remember the bizarre, nonsensical fabrications you created in an attempt to explain why you'd been out drinking all night?

If you do, then you have to admire the sheer lunacy unshaken faith Der Schwanzkopf has in lying his ability to sway people's opinions. It also doesn't hurt that he owns a majority of Italy's cable networks, newspapers, and radio stations.

While this scandal has been widely reported in the Italian press for weeks, it hasn't reached the level of real political concern for Silvio and 'Little Silvio' -- and, frankly, that's all he cares about.

The Italian parliament is badly divided -- as it has been for fifty years -- and only the coalition grouped around Berlusconi's center-right party can create a majority. No majority? The business of government (never that successful in Italy anyway) grinds to a halt. New elections are called; the fun starts all over again.

Silvio has used the fact of that always-shaky-but-holding coalition to say See? This is as stable a government as Italy has had since end of the big Boomba-Boomba with Benito and the Tadeski. As long as I give you a government that works, a little -- you let me play with the girls, eh? Or, maybe, launder a little money; do a little business...

As the New York Times reported, "In the past, Mr. Berlusconi has emerged largely unscathed from a dizzying number of trials. He has railed for decades against prosecutors and used his private television and media empire to help shape Italian public opinion. Most Italians have little faith in their justice system.

" 'I think Berlusconi is in a position to move beyond the Ruby scandal media-wise, but I’m not sure if he can move beyond it in the courts,' said Italo Bocchino, a leader of Future and Liberty, a faction that broke away from Mr. Berlusconi’s center-right coalition last year but largely supported him in an important confidence vote in December."

Wow; this is better than Battlestar Galactica Goes To The Beach. What will happen next? Will Silvio! claim Ms. el-Mahroug is a giant Space Lizard from Arcturus? Will the Italian Parliament dissolve itself and sell the country to a consortium owned by Vladimir Putin, who will turn it into a Theme Park, "Italyland"??

Who knows? Who cares? Stay tuned to the next exciting episode of -- It's That Silvio!! Brought to you by Fox: Fair And Balanced, The Finest NewsProdukt© Money Can Buy.


Saturday, February 5, 2011

Relics Of The Saint

A Long Howl

Richard Avedon, Portrait Of Ronald Reagan, 1976

Ronald Wilson Reagan, former film actor and Governor of California, became the Fortieth President of the United States just short of his 70th birthday in 1981. He served two terms, leaving office just before turning 78, in 1989. It was announced publicly in 1994 that he was diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease, and he passed away in 2004 at age 92, having spent the last ten years of his life in seclusion and the slow, sad disappearing act which characterizes that illness.

He would have been 100 this past January 28th, and that Centennial anniversary has kicked off a series of celebrations, documentaries, teevee shows, books, and traveling exhibits (most, funded by conservative political organizations in America), all intended to remind the world of the wonderful legacy of a man who is the closest thing the Right has to a saint.



Bad Dreams

For years, after the Presidential election of 1980 and again in 1984, on more days than not, nearly the first thought I had on waking was Ronald Reagan is President of the United States. It wasn't an obsessive thought, but persistent -- like a commercial jingle stuck in your consciousness that you remember for a few moments but takes a long time to get rid of.

It was History, Joyce's idea of the bad dream; like a sick joke ("Ha ha ha ha; okay. No, really; that's not funny. It isn't true, right? What??). This person wasn't a politician. He was an entertainer, an actor; and not a particularly good one. He'd been Governor of California from 1966 to 1976, and not a particularly good politician, either. He was a stiffnecked, teevee-Daddy with Sta-Press hair that never seemed to show any grey: As they called him at Woodstock, he was "Ronald Rayguns": Brown Shoes Don't Make It; a personification of the System; unhip, uncool, and ultimately a joke.

California's First Family, 1965 (Photo: National Archives)

During his reign as Governor, I remembered budgets for social programs and funding of state hospitals for the mentally ill were slashed -- a future taste of Reaganomics: Pushing a California state problem off on municipal governments. The number of homeless and crazy on the streets rose dramatically.

And (despite being part of the 'Stop Nixon' effort at the 1968 Republican convention), Ronnie was a supporter of the Nixon Presidency, and the continuing war in Vietnam. In 1969, I remember Reagan's calling out the California Highway Patrol, then the state National Guard, to deal with protests at UC Berkeley -- not an unusual practice in America, then; African-Americans were rioting in many major cities, every summer, between 1965 and 1971. On televisions across the country via the nightly news, ghettos burned and the National Guard patrolled the streets. I remember all that very well.

National Guard On Shattuck Avenue, Berkeley, 1969 (Hippy.com)

Reagan's public comment about antiwar protests I remembered, too: If it's a bloodbath they [the protestors] want, let's give it to them. No more appeasement. And, after Patty Hearst's SLA kidnappers demanded distribution of food to the poor as a condition of her release, Reagan quipped, "It's just too bad we can't have an epidemic of botulism."

I asked no one in particular, then, nearly every morning: This tabula rasa, this empty filmscreen for projection of whatever image, had been elected President?? And Twice?? Reagan's double election seemed to be proof that illusions being fed to America were being swallowed whole.

Reagan, a professional actor, was chosen as a figurehead for those on the Right who have a common self-interest in what benefits them directly, rather than the common good for all Americans. That people had lined up to drink that Kool-Aid, twice, was a warning: Because Americans were showing a preference for Lies, rather than the Truth, our collective future would be more bleak and dangerous.

After the idealism and Counterculture of the Sixties and early Seventies, I just couldn't reconcile all that with Reagan's election. And, as if to prove me right about the level of deception and sleep Americans appeared to prefer -- Jerry Rubin became a stockbroker; a number of my friends, former Hippies who had moved from from antiwar activism to Mahatmas and Satgurus, suddenly turned into consumerist Yuppies, and the era of Reagan had become the 'Me Decade'.



The Emperor Has No Prefrontal Cortex

First Mondale-Reagan Debate, 1984: Dazed And Confused

Reagan's youngest son (by his second marriage to Nancy Davis Reagan), Ron Jr., released a book last week -- "My Father At 100" -- which noted:
Today, we are aware that the physiological and neurological changes associated with Alzheimer’s can be in evidence years, even decades, before identifiable symptoms arise … the question of whether my father suffered from the beginning stages of Alzheimer’s while in office more or less answers itself.
The younger Reagan recalled that during a presidential debate in 1984, during a televised debate with Democrat Walter Mondale, his father “began to experience the nausea of a bad dream coming true... My heart sank as he floundered his way through his responses, fumbling with his notes, uncharacteristically lost for words. He looked tired and bewildered.”

Doctors first saw signs of Alzheimer’s in 1989 when Reagan underwent brain surgery after a fall from a horse. The diagnosis was not definitive (or, not made public) until 1994, almost five years after leaving office, and before his death in 2004.

During the final years of Reagan's second term, there were rumors coming out of the White House that the President was... not all there. That on occasions, he would be so confused that... things would happen: He would wander, lost in the White House (and who's going to ask the President, 'Hey! Where're you goin'?'), or physically lash out at aides as they reached to assist him in his apparent stupor.

Back To The White House After The Second Inauguration, 1985

And there were other rumors -- that after 1986, the country was effectively run by Nancy Reagan and a few trusted advisers, in the belief that revealing the President was Goo-Goo would embolden the Commie Enemy, lead to wholesale legal challenges of Presidential decisions, and be bad for the Reagan Image -- that illusion of the Film Daddy bravely leading the country, which is why Reagan had been elected in the first place.

Ron Reagan is a mild conservative, if one at all; I've had the impression that he, and his sister Patti, are the two children in their family to personally admit and confront its dysfunctionality. On the other hand, his older half- brother Michael (also his older sister Maureen, who died in 2001) resolutely faced off against Ron both personally and politically over the years. Michael Reagan (whose conservatism almost by definition must be more intense, because of who he is) went on Twitter recently to make his comment about Ron's "My Father At 100":

Sending The Love: Half-Brother Michael's Message to Ron, Jr.,
Posted On Little Michelle's Website, SelfHatingLoon.org

About the younger Ron's book, The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation only said in a statement: “We believe Ron has written a wonderfully warm and engaging book about life with his father, Ronald Reagan... As for the topic of Alzheimer’s, this subject has been well documented over the years ... signs of Alzheimer’s did not appear until well after President Reagan left the White House.”

Just as I did while watching Nixon on television quietly weeping through Pat's funeral, after learning of Reagan's diagnosis with Alzheimer's I had some empathy for the B-grade ex-actor and C-grade ex-leader's decent into The Long Goodbye and what that meant for his family -- who weren't characters out of Bleak House; they were people. I hated the things Reagan had done, but not enough to want to deny him his essential humanity at the end.

Do Not Disturb Dread Cuthulu's Eternal Sleep: The Right-To-Life
Crowd Must Have Paid Serious Money To Have The Last Line Added

He lies on the grounds of the Reagan Presidential Library in Simi, California -- buried under lots of concrete and flagstone, like so many other despots, imperial leaders, and evangelical hate-spewers. It's not to prevent grave-robbers (as happened with Lincoln), or desecrators (as has happened to some notable figures)... but to make sure their Undead corpses can't claw their way back into the sunlight and trouble us again.

Vote For Dead Guy: This Bumper Sticker Is Actually Available



Defending The Perfect Faith, Because It Pays

'Intellectual Engine' Of The Right, And A Friend To Working Boys

Yesterday, Lard Boy spoke with one of those liberals, calling in to his syndicated radio program.

The newly-married Zeppelin thought he'd have a little fun with Teh Liberal -- easy, since it's Lard Boy's show, and he's gifted as a bully. But when confronted with a simple, factual statement ('Reagan raised taxes'), The Zep was confused, and didn't didn't know how to respond (That could have been the effects of medication you can only get through prescription, but maybe not):


(The same caller has his own recording of a globsmacked Lard Boy on UTub, and you may see it here if you wish. If you're a lazy, good-for-nothing dirty hippie on unemployment who hates Teh Freedom, and don't want to wait for the video to load, see the transcript here.)

This was my favorite part:

LARD BOY: 'Why is Reagan a hero to conservatives?' I don’t think you -- given what you’ve said, and I’m not trying to avoid the question, I don’t think you’d ever understand it.

CALLER: Well, he’s a tax raiser, an amnesty giver, a cut-and-runner, and he negotiated with terrorists. Why is he a hero to conservatives? I don’t think you understand it.

LARD BOY: No, I do. Most assuredly I do. I just don’t think that you would understand it. Where did you get this silly notion that Reagan raised taxes... Where did you pick that up?

Because it's true. And, on the Right, even when confronted by a fact which is supported by impartial data, people like Lard Boy claim Oh; the data is wrong.

Adolf Schrödter, "Falstaff und sein Page" (1867; Wikipedia)

Lard Boy's response -- to lie -- is typical, and for him in particular. Why should he agree that everything he spews over the air is wrong? His income is based on ignoring, even denying, the truth. When it pays in gold to be loyal to the memory of the king, you behave like Falstaff and raise your glass.



Don't Ask How The Sausage Is Made

Summing Up The Reagan Presidency: 'Role Of A Lifetime'

The Gospel Of Saint Ronald is that he did not compromise his core conservative principles -- he lowered taxes; reduced the size of government; he brought the U.S. through (what used to be) our worst economic period since the Great Depression through Supply Side ("trickle-down") economics and a belief in the Free Market; he stood up to Reds and Terrorists abroad. The collapse of Communist Eastern Europe and Russia in 1989-1991 was all due to his wise stewardship of America.

At The Reagan Presidential Library: Conservative Illusions

This is almost wholly a pack of lies, of course [Please Note: The list of taxes raised shown below is (with additional research) based on a comment made at Media Matters by 'DrMatt2003'; hat tip to him or her].
  • During his two terms in office, Reagan raised taxes seven times -- in 1982 alone, he signed into law not one, but two major tax increases: The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (TEFRA) raised taxes by $37.5 billion per year; and the Highway Revenue Act raised the gasoline tax by another $3.3 billion.
  • In 1983, Reagan signed legislation raising the Social Security tax rate. This increase lives with us still, since it initiated automatic increases in the taxable wage base.
  • In 1984, Reagan signed another large tax increase through the Deficit Reduction Act. This raised taxes by $18 billion per year (or 0.4 percent of GDP). A similar-sized tax increase today would roughly equal $44 billion.
  • The Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 raised taxes yet again -- and even the Tax Reform Act of 1986, designed to be revenue-neutral, contained a net tax increase in its first 2 years -- and the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1987 raised taxes still more.
  • 1988, Reagan's final year in office, was one of only two years during Reagan's Presidency in which taxes were not raised through new laws (the other being 1981, his first year in the saddle).
  • And, Reagan's tax increases continued into following years -- a bit like his Governorship of California, pushing problems down the road -- and, according the 1990 budget (Under George H.W. Bush), the net effect of all prior Reagan tax legislation mentioned above raised taxes by $164 billion (or 2.6 percent of GDP); this is equivalent to tax increases of nearly $300 billion in the 2011 economy.
  • When Reagan took office in 1981, the National Debt was $934 billion.
  • When Reagan left in 1989, the National Debt was $2.6 Trillion -- a 270% increase.
  • The United States, by increasing Defense Expenditures in 1981-1989 and beyond, forced the structure of Soviet State Capitalism into bankruptcy. But in plain terms, Reagan spent more than the taxes he raised, and so boosted the National Debt for eight years... which Reagan and other conservatives were confident would handled by other, future Presidents... again, kicking the problem down the road.
  • Economist Paul Krugman noted that the 'Reagan Recovery' wasn't really due to Supply-Side economics at all -- but because we'd been down so long that anything looked like up.

    The secret of the long [economic boom] after 1982 was the economic plunge that preceded it [Krugman has said]. By the end of 1982, the U.S. economy was deeply depressed... the worst unemployment rate since the Great Depression. So there was plenty of room to grow before the economy returned to anything like full employment. The Right claims the boom in GDP and jobs was all due to Reagan's "trickle-down" economics -- and the Right uses this 'proof' to demand more, always more, tax benefits for the rich.
  • The Federal government increased in size and cost, not decreased; and corporate America and its lobbyists grew in political influence, during Reagan's Presidency.
We would have to wait until "Lil' Boots" Bush for another Leader to do precisely the same as Reagan: Cut taxes for wealthiest of Americans, increase Defense spending through the War On Terra, more than double the National Debt (from $4.9 Trillion in 2001, to $10.6 Trillion in 2009) during his eight years as appointed leader; and allow corporations -- particularly in the finance and banking sector -- to go almost unregulated and wield more influence than before.

The seeds of the financial collapse we're still experiencing are part of the legacy of Saint Ronald. But there was more:
  • There was Iran-Contra, a rat's nest of conspiracy, of negotiating with an Iran which had just overthrown the Shah and which was labeled a 'terrorist state', of and drugs-for-arms and the Contras being (as Reagan said), "the moral equivalent of the founding fathers".
  • The involvement of George H.W. Bush, the Vice-President (and former DCIA), Admiral John Poindexter, or then-CIA Director William Casey, is of little interest to the American Right; and the session of Congressional inquiry, where Committee Associate Counsel John Keker (himself an ex-Marine officer) effectively deconstructed Oliver North's lies on live television, is something they'd prefer not be mentioned.
  • There was the American involvement to support any military junta or regime who declared themselves anticommunist across Central and South America (and therefore eligible for U.S. funding, and CIA assistance) -- and their murder squads, their secret police and the repression of any dissenting political opinions, and the numberless "disappeared" who are still being searched for.
  • There was Lebanon -- where Reagan had famously sent the U.S. Marines, saying we were there to stay and finish the job (what, precisely wasn't defined); and when 260 Marines died in a suicide bombing, the United States cut and run, and the Corps was removed.
But, then we invaded Grenada in 1988, and that turned out just fine. And, there were plenty of other fun moments -- like Ron and Nancy's trip to Bitburg and the graves of some SS Rotenführers and Schützen. Or, the Berlin Wall speech (Mister Gorbachev -- tear down this wall!"). Or "Ol' Blue Eyes", crooning for Ron and Nancy from the East Wing stage at the White House at his second Inaugural. And Ron's defense of the 'Pro-Life' movement.

So what if Ron had an occasional problem remembering things (Nancy's sotto voce, "We're doing the best we can" prompt to him as he tried responding to a reporter's question)? And, sure, there were some questions as to who exactly was running the country -- diminished capacity, and Constitutional succession, and all that. But, I mean; the guy's in his Seventies, for god's sake. Cut him some slack. Country's fine, right? Yeah, we're all just fine.

Just be positive. Remember the Good Times. Remember how great America can be.

And if you have to complain -- because you're being tortured by the security police in your misbegotten Spanish-speaking or Arabic country; or because you live in West L.A. and just committed a murder to get money to buy more Crack that originated in Central America in a drugs-for-arms swap; or, your lungs are filling up with fluid because you have a devastated immune system due to AIDS... well, just keep it to yourself. It's important that things look nice. Don't spoil the party for others.



This is the crux of it, for me: Reagan and his Presidency represents the worm at the heart of the Rose for this country -- all the mistaken belief-systems, the delusions, of the Right in America. He represented believing a Lie before acknowledging the Truth; the dichotomy between America The Ideal, and its history, and any reconciliation with actual events.

Reagan stood for a continuation of the illusion -- the Hollywood happy ending, the 'Shining City On The Hill' -- which was just a Potemkin Village, a backlot film set. He stood for a continuation of the Lie, and I rejected that, instinctively, because (as Thomas of the Gnostic gospels related), if you do not bring forth that which is inside you... [it] will destroy you.

It was always ironic to me that Reagan, whose entire life seemed bent toward convincing everyone to look away, toward an illusion of the future (the barker at General Electric's Disneyland "Carousel Of Progress") and urging us to forget about the past, ended by losing his own, an inch at a time.



The Future

Little Sarah, Plain And Tall, Who Claims She's The Anointed One

In the stumbling, carnival-like atmosphere of the American Right after the end of the Bush era, the election of Barack Obama and the rise of the Teabaggers, everyone who's anyone wants to pass the Ronald Reagan scratch-n-sniff test. Any possible Republican (or Teabag) nominee for President in 2012 will have to prove -- to, uh, somebody, I guess -- that they are worthy to claim the mantle of Saint Ronald The Dim.

Sarah Palin was invited to be the keynote speaker at yesterday's conservative Youth America Foundation's celebration of Reagan's 100th birthday in Santa Barbara, CA. She invoked Reagan's legacy, saying that America had "strayed" from Reagan's values, saying Obama and Democrats are 'retreating from greatness'.

Record Album, Mid-1960's: Medicare, A Socialist Plot

Palin is a junkie for attention, and driven by a belief that her desire to exercise power is actually a mission from god (somebody's god, anyway). She's like Reagan in that her view of politics and America continue lies and the illusions; they don't address our experience or choices for the future in any honest or reality-based way. The key elements of her speeches since the 2008 elections only repeat that America's Left is all about division and defeat, and that Little Sarah is all about a return to greatness, recapturing Our Glory Days; a time of... well, whatever people think that means.

It's a variation of Reagan's theme in his 1980 acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention: America, A Shining City On The Hill. And it was just as hollow an image then as it is now.

Ask Palin to describe what she means by a "return to greatness", and she'll provide a torrent of similar, empty phrases -- all Illusion, not Reality, and politics nakedly designed to manipulate base fears and hatreds. That's all she, and most politicians on the Right, have to offer.

Palin's comments irked Ron Reagan, Jr., enough to prompt a public statement: “Sarah Palin is a soap opera, basically,” Reagan told The Associated Press. “She’s doing mostly what she does to make money and keep her name in the news... She isn't like my father... [and she] is not a serious candidate for president and never has been."

But, the truth has never stopped America's Right from trying to convince the citizens of this country to believe The Illusion Reagan represented, and ignore Fact and Truth.

Not ever.


Thursday, February 3, 2011

1,200 New Planets Discovered, And A Blog

1.200 Neue Planeten Entdeckt, Und Ein Blog:
Spaß Für Dich!


Header: Brosh's Grammatical Creature; Dog; Bear; Self-Portrait;
Rainbow; And Sun, Who Knows Better (©Allie Brosh, 2009-2011)

As a drawing and painting Dog who enjoys Teh Funny, occasionally I stumble across someone else's work that makes me laugh my guts out. Hyperbole And A Half easily meets that definition. It's creator, Allie Brosh, describes it as "not really a web comic, but it isn't really a blog either. Basically, it has lots of pictures and words and it really tries hard to be funny."

Really really; she succeeded. Plus, about a bazillion people make comments on the art-and-text posts; Brosh has 177,000 "I Like This!" adds on her Facebook page, and as a Blogspot blogger has 48,842 Followers. I shit you not.

To provide context as to what this means on the relative Facebook scale of things, Salon online magazine has some 46,000 Followers. I have four. I am, uh, ambivalent about this.

However, my murderous jealousy aside, Brosh has done something really, really well -- simple drawings that are easily as fine in their own way as the early work of (genuflect, please) Chris Ware, and in particular his "Potato Guy" -- a character simply drawn but very rich, living in a world that feels like a collaboration between Samuel Beckett, Pee-Wee Hermann, and The Spirits Of The Overlook Hotel from "The Shining" (Images below ©Chris Ware, 1987-1989?).

Potato Guy Loses Banana: Early Torment Of The Guy (1988)

Ware's Classic 'Waking Up Blind' Bit, Wherein Potato Guy
Is Tormented By An All Powerful God (Ware), Again (1987)
[P.S. -- Check out the greyscale sky in the first panel:
Created in the Era Of 'Letraset', Man; Classic!]

Ware created Potato Guy during his art school period; you can see numerous variations on the Guy in Ware's The Acme Novelty Book, Volumes 1, 2 and 3 [You can find them here at Fantagraphics, one of the last bastions of publishing art for art's sake]. Essentially, the Guy (occasionally joined by the Guy's Dog) was Ware's Everyperson, and his world was The Human Condition: A little alienated; moderately befuddled by Teh Strangeness; and generally screwed with by the process of existence: You know the drill, buddy.

Potato Guy, Regular Guy: Childhood, Remembered (Date Unknown)

In 1990, Ware published a four-page entry in Art Spiegelman and Francoise Mouly's RAW magazine (Vol. 2, No. 2), "Waking Up Blind" -- a standard torment by Ware of his little character. I actually drew a counter-cartoon of the Guy, wherein he gets eyes and things work out for him; I had never done that in response to any artist's work, before or since.

I laughed and cried, grumblingly forgave Ware, and never stopped wanting to see more of his artwork. Over time, he developed an amazing graphic style that (no pun intended) draws on typefaces and design elements from before the turn of the last century; it's as if Charles Burns were doing comics in the early 1900's.

NOTE: Ware Drew Corrigan Before Family Guy's Stewie Appeared

I kind of fell off the back of the Ware Wagon when he went on to do his extended, and terrific, Jimmy Corrigan: The Smartest Kid On Earth. I fell behind in reading his work, and by now Ware's published so much good material that I'd have to make the commitment in Time and Cash in order to catch up. Without doubt, he's among the best American comic artists of the late 20th and early 21st centuries.

And, as an Art Dog, I'm drawn to his (albeit heavily edited and 'packaged') sketchbooks of art school and later doodlings [Acme Novelty Books, volumes 2 and 3]. You can see hints of his future style developing, but the early work was more unvarnished and experimental -- one reason I was attracted to Brosh's material.

Brosh's Benny, With Mutants Neighborhood Kids, Playing A
Birthday Party Game, "Wolf Pack" (©Allie Brosh, 2009-2011)

Hyperbole And A Half is as good as Ware at his Potato Guy best, but doesn't have remote, unnamed characters being fucked with by a remote, impersonal Universe: The character whom things happen to is Brosh, for the most part -- and her take on life and events is often Teh Strange. If you think about it for even five minutes, the tension between The World As Experienced and the World We Expect Or Hope For is what powers the engine of most Art that is capable of moving you. And in vignettes from her own life, Brosh taps that energy.

And, her writing is good; it makes me laugh. If Comic timing can be an element in any short story or blog post (and it can), Brosh has it.

Allie Brosh will tell you She Will Never Be An Adult; that Her (Rescued) Dog Is Retarded; shows us a Lord Of The Files Birthday Party; and offers a more accurate version of the hospital Which-Picture-Shows-How-Much-Pain-You-Feel?

"Internet Foerver!": Brosh's Self-Portrait As Responsible Artist
(©Allie Brosh, 2009-2011)

Or, This One: Brought To You By Livebolgging On Six Miniature
Bottles Of Rum, And A Pony (©Allie Brosh, 2009-2011)

Share How You Feel: Brosh's New Hospital Pain Scale
(©Allie Brosh, 2009-2011)

What's also attractive, for me -- beyond the expressive, simple drawings (all of them done, not with a Wacom tablet, but with what appears to be MS Paint, using a mouse), are crazy little extras -- like the Awesome Button (What is it? What does it do? Where does it take you? Wherever it is, it will be awesome. And sometimes it changes. But it will always be awesome).

The Awesome Button: Was It Awesome? It Was Awesome, Dude

It's not too tough to get a Dog to laugh, but we have teensy Attention Deficit issues when exposed to multiple sensory stimulus (Things That Make Us Laugh vs. Food, or Fast-Moving Objects, or Other Dogs). I believe that Brosh, in dealing with the 'Challenged' Dog and the 'Helper' Dog she and her Significant Other own, understands this in an experiential way: Something has to be very good to capture our attention consistently enough for an extended laugh. Go look at this to get an idea of what I mean: It's a belief in the existence of Dog.

All things being equal, finding Hyperbole is possibly the most important thing to happen all day.

Infringers, Pay Attention: This Is Under Your Bed, Right Now
(©Allie Brosh, 2009-2011)

Oh; yeah -- and, some satellite detected what appear to be 1,200 planets in the general stellar "neighborhood"; yeah yeah, so pleased. Whatever. Tell them to pick up after themselves.


Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Where The Hot Wind Blows


Chunks

Steve Benen, who does the column, 'Political Animal' at The Washington Monthly, noted on Tuesday that "Glenn Beck has lost about a third of his audience, which is a pretty significant drop, and may very well lead the deranged media personality to think of ways to bring viewers back."
One way, for example, may be for Beck to be even more creative when sharing crazy visions of global affairs. Yesterday, the strange man did his best to explain events in Egypt with a take that really has to be seen to be believed.

And you can see it, right here:



"I believe that I can make a case," Little Glenny said, "that there are three powers that you will see really emerge. One, a Muslim caliphate that controls the Mideast and parts of Europe.

"Two, China, that will control Asia, the southern half of Africa, part of the Middle East, Australia, maybe New Zealand, and God only knows what else.

"And Russia, which will control all of the old former Soviet Union bloc, plus maybe the Netherlands. I'm not really sure. But their strong arm is coming. That leaves us and South America."

Marxist Commies Are Not Like Un-Marxist Commies

Benen observed that, for Glenny, the current disparate wars and popular uprisings that appear on our big LCD teevees are "the fault of 'Marxist communists' -- as opposed to, say, Marxists and communists -- Muslims, and progressives. Indeed, Beck insisted that the events only he can see are 'coordinated.' "

While pointing to Egypt on a map of Africa, Beck told the weak-minded gullible Marks in his con game his audience, When you take the Marxists and you combine them with the radical from Islam, when you combine those forces, which is exactly -- we'll show you this week -- what is happening here, the whole world starts to implode.

Bad Teevee Waves Made Me Do This

Glenny reminds me of a story I heard from someone raised in the Bay Area, years ago: in the late 1950's or early 1960's, there was a local children's television show built around a host who made simple sock puppets (One was a Beatnik, wearing a small beret, who spouted gentle nonsense poetry) and used them in a Punch-and-Judy style, box-shaped Proscenium stage. The show was very popular with the kids.

One day, a piece of black electrician's tape appeared, running diagonally across one corner of the archway of the stage. The host used his puppets to perform their skits; nothing seemed out of place. Then, the next day, another piece of black tape appeared, running diagonally beside the first.

Over the next week or so (the person relating the story recalled), more pieces of tape appeared. At the same time, very slowly, the host began using his puppets to make nasty comments about Mrs. Host, and perform skits which mentioned things like alimony, and infidelity -- which, of course, mystified the children.

Finally, after a couple of days of this, pieces of electrician's tape had covered the upper half of the puppet stage. The Beatnik puppet became stuck in the tape, and began thrashing wildly; "I'm caught in the teevee waves, man! Caught in the teevee waves!"

The channel cut to a cartoon. Then another, and another, until the time slot for the host's puppet show had ended. The host was apparently fired, and the show (my friend recalled) was canceled and never returned to the air.

Glenny's End

That's what I expect from Glenny -- an on-air meltdown. Except Little Rupert will continue to treat his on-air babbling as if he were Howard Beale, in the film Network ("Are they yelling in Chicago, Fred?").

In any rational culture, Glenny would be fired for what he's already vomited over the airwaves. However, here in The Land Of The Brave and the Home Of The Hip, he's given even more of the spotlight. What does that tell you?

At Washington Monthly, a commenter at Benen's site, ComradeAnon, drew the correct inference from watching Little Glenny's spiel, and asked the obvious question: "How many gold coins are we required to buy?"


Monday, January 31, 2011

Arrogance Of Power

The Shape Of Things

Crowds In Downtown Cairo: Monday, January 31st; The Size
Of Crowds Continues To Increase (Photo: Ben Curtis, AP)

The principal reason that Hosni Mubarak, very probably, is trying to negotiate a safe landing for himself and his family in any country who will have him, was blindness, greed, and arrogance.

He refused to initiate democratic reforms; to do so would mean a loss of autocratic power. He and his family have become amazingly wealthy in the past thirty years, principally at the expense of his country and its people. And, Mubarak believed (as the Rethugs did during the regime of Lil' Boots Bush) that he could simply will reality into being, that he could stop the new revolution, happening in the streets of Cairo, right now -- because it was his wish.

From Paul Krugman's column in the New York Times this morning:
Last Saturday, reported The Financial Times, some of the world’s most powerful financial executives were going to hold a private meeting with finance ministers in Davos... The principal demand of the executives, the newspaper suggested, would be that governments “stop banker-bashing.” Apparently bailing bankers out after they precipitated the worst slump since the Great Depression isn’t enough — politicians have to stop hurting their feelings, too.

But the bankers also had a more substantive demand: they want higher interest rates, despite the persistence of very high unemployment in the United States and Europe, because they say that low rates are feeding inflation...

The U.S. economy fell into recession at the end of 2007; the rest of the world followed a few months later. And advanced nations — the United States, Europe, Japan — have barely begun to recover. It’s true that these economies have been growing since the summer of 2009, but the growth has been too slow to produce large numbers of jobs. To raise interest rates under these conditions would be to undermine any chance of doing better; it would mean, in effect, accepting mass unemployment as a permanent fact of life.
Even when there are hundreds of thousands of people in the streets, or tens of millions unemployed around the world; some just don't get it.

One reason the people of Tunisia and Egypt went into the streets was poverty, caused by high unemployment, and men and women walking home emptyhanded to their hungry children, day after day. That, finally, they said Ich bin nicht ein Tier!! And that they had nothing to lose.

There's a comment rolling around in my mind that I once heard -- you know, about history, and dustbins. I know I'll remember it at the right moment. But I'm almost certain our Financial Masters Of The Universe, as they briefly glance at Fox Cable images of Hosni Mubarak's end, don't remember it either.


Sunday, January 30, 2011

History

"WITNESS: An Egyptian man [using] his cellphone video camera."
(Photo: Scott Nelson for the New York Times, January 30th)

The Revolution Will Be Tweeted
The revolution will not be brought to you
by the Schaefer Award Theatre and will not star
Natalie Woods and Steve McQueen or Bullwinkle and Julia...
The revolution will not make you look five pounds thinner,
because the revolution will not be televised, Brother.
Gil-Scott Heron, "The Revolution Will Not Be Televised";
From The Album Small Talk At 125th And Lenox, 1970

The liberation forces make movies of their own
Playing their Doors records and pretending to be stoned
Drowning out a broadcast that wasn't authorized;
Incidentally, the revolution will be televised
With one head for business and another for good looks;
Until they start arriving with their rubber aprons
and their butcher's hooks
Evlis Costello, "Invasion Hit Parade";
From The Album Wild Like A Rose, 1990

Scott Shane published an article in the New York Times' online 'Week In Review' section yesterday, led with the photo above. It carries a wealth of imagery. I strongly recommend looking at it.

The primary juxtaposition is this man -- wearing a long tunic and skullcap-and-scarf headdress typical in Middle Eastern cultures; an average, Egyptian Arabic man -- using a 21st Century cellphone.

How we see that man speaks to the ethnocentric assumptions of a large number of Westerners, about Those Third World Types: That in their non-Caucasian, non-Christian or Judaic beliefs; their non-Westerness, they should be incapable of understanding the concept of cellular technology and digital imagery -- let alone being sophisticated enough to use that technology. And, that they would have enough money to buy a smart phone or laptop to access the Internet.

We vaguely assume that life in other places is poorer, harder and more rigidly controlled than in America, but as a global Empire what our government's part in that might be is something few people consider and fewer discuss in any meaningful way. The history of how we've dealt with the Arab world, and with other world power centers (like the EU; OPEC; Iran; Russia, China; South America) is not something Americans consider -- until something like events in Tunisia, Yemen, Lebanon and Egypt occur.

We can't see what the man is recording on video or capturing in a still image (possibly Scott Nelson, the Western photographer who took this picture), but it's clear he's at the center of one part of a larger drama that involves a repressive government most Americans barely think about, in a part of the world most in the West perceive as hostile, even monolithic in its religious attitudes and culture -- when we think about them at all.

Hosni, Hosed: 'UnFriended' 60 Million Times!

Late last week, Egypt's 30-year President, Hosni Mubarak, ordered Egypt's connections to the Internet cut, and cellular phone service restricted. Shane's NYT article noted that "in the face of huge street protests... Mubarak betrayed his own fear — that Facebook, Twitter, laptops and smartphones could empower his opponents, expose his weakness to the world and topple his regime."

Put bluntly, the West uses social networking tools as part of the white noise in the backgrounds of our lives. People keep each other up to date on Twitter, or Facebook, but mostly about effervescent, trivial moment-by-moment events (Jane Smith Is Now At The Market!), like chatter at a massive party with an old Doors album ("People Come Out Of The Rain / When You're Strange...").

Social networking is touted as a way to "keep in touch", but it's also a continuation of the illusory 'connectedness' of a consumer culture -- an adjunct to online shopping and 600-channel cable on demand! It's about satisfying a desire to be titillated with sensations and having all our wishes fulfilled, right now. That every day will be filled with stimulation, possessing, and answered prayers.

However, in North Africa and the "undeveloped" world, people are living very different lives and have very different assumptions about tomorrow. Our 9.6% unemployment level, for an industrialized society, is bad -- but in places like Tunisia, it's nearly three-and-a-half times higher. The most grinding poverty, where people go hungry at least one day a week, is normal.

Meanwhile, repressive, oligarchical governments, where power passes from father to child (as in the case of Mubarak, who at 82 was preparing Egypt for rule by his son), and a thin percentage of the nation's elite live like gods, relative to the majority of ordinary Arabs. Often, those repressive governments continue in the face of even militant opposition because they are supported by the United States; the 'War On Terror' was a good time for rulers in the Arab world who would cooperate with "Lil' Boots" Bush.

Many in the fragile middle- and lower-middle class do have cell phones, and connections to the Internet, in these countries. In large cities, Internet Cafes are heavily used -- but there, social networking is more than 'keeping in touch'. Shane's NYT article noted that the same Internet tools we use to talk about nothing in particular helped to accelerate Tunisia’s revolution, "driving the country’s ruler of 23 years, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, into ignominious exile and igniting a conflagration that has spread across the Arab world at breathtaking speed."

How breathtaking was shown in one example of a dissident Tunisian blogger, Slim Amamou, with "thousands of followers on Twitter", suddenly "catapulted in a matter of days from the interrogation chambers of Mr. Ben Ali’s regime" into Tunisia's new government as Minister for youth and sports. However, a few days later, Amamou was out of the government; from prisoner to Minister, to free-man, private citizen-blogger in the space of about seventy-two hours. Things move fast in a revolution, but Amamou's story unfolded at the speed of electrons.

Big Brother Wants To Join Your Facebook

But the use of Internet and cellphone tools has two edges (as I mentioned in a post below): Ahed al-Hindi, a Syrian activist and blogger, arrested at an Internet cafe in Damascus in 2006 and leaving for self-exile in the West after his release, says that Facebook “is a great database for the [Syrian] government now.” Hindi is now part of a U.S.-based group, CyberDissidents.org, and added that while social networking tools do "more good than harm", assisting activists to develop organizations, they're also communicating details about themselves and their activities directly to their countries' State Security apparatus.

According to the UK Guardian, an anonymous 26-page leaflet appeared in Cairo last week with practical advice for demonstrators -- instructing activists to pass it on by e-mail, or in hardcopy — but not to use Facebook and Twitter, as they were monitored by the Mubarak government.

At about that same time, Mubarak made the decision to cut his nation's connections to the World Wide Web. As Shane noted, "It was a desperate move from an autocrat who had not learned to harness the tools his opponents have embraced".

More Than Ever: A Tinder Box

This is only one Dog's opinion, but it's doubtful Mubarak will remain in power. The Egyptian military, which has gone out to secure the streets, has also shown it will not use force against demonstrators as the national police have: The army wants to preserve its image as a professional cadre protecting the country, and above politics.

It's possible that Mubarak's dismissal of his entire government, and appointment yesterday of a new Vice President, his promises of some kinda future changes, maybe will defuse the situation. But my intuition says that in a week or less, Egypt will have a government which will include nothing left of the national political party, a Mubarak family franchise, which has dominated Egypt with American and EU assistance since the assassination of Anwar Sadat over thirty years ago.

Tunisia is still in turmoil, where another repressive, U.S.-supported autocrat has been forced out in a popular uprising. Yemen, home turf of Osama bin Laden and home to many in Al-Qaeda is in similar chaos. Lebanon appears poised to be taken over by a government owned by Hezbollah (and so, then, will be owned by Iran); there are even protests in Jordan, whose western-educated king runs the most lenient of the Middle East's arabic/autocratic regimes.

The entire Middle East is a tinder-box of ancient, and more recent, conflicts and posturing and testosterone-fueled hatreds. In Tunisia and Egypt, the digital aspect of the changes being wrought there are 'Proof Of Concept' events -- lines which, to the rest of the Arabic world, have been shown it's possible they can be crossed and current regimes can be removed.

The region is a patchwork of tribal and clan relationships that have been woven for over a millenium (to add even more complexity, whether those clans adhere to the Sunni or Shiite interpretation of the Islamic religion plays a huge role). Iran is a separate case; they're Persians, and though Islamic do not consider themselves arabs. Neither do Pakistanis, or Afghanis. While the West has gone global, diffuse, and digital, much of the rest of the world is still tied to specific geography, where generations of their ancestors have lived and died .

The Middle East had been occupied by the Ottoman Turks for centuries. Some of the ruling clans of the Middle East -- of the Arabic Emirates; Jordan; Kuwait; and in particular the House of Saud -- forged alliances with British and French colonial occupiers during World War One, which allowed them to dominate the tribal relations of the region.

After World War Two, those same tribal rulers rode the wave of anti-colonialism into more permanent power, for themselves. And as oil became more important, they created an image of an Arabic world that had a hold on the West. Together with tight autocratic rule and repressive law or security forces, the rulers of the Middle East have been secure for fifty years -- and supported by the West, which needs its oil.

The Laptop And The Sword

The three things which have kept this from being a lasting marriage of convenience are (1) The establishment of the State of Israel; (2) The slow, corrosive effects of poverty and repression in many Arabic countries; and, (3) The rise of militant Islamists, funded primarily by wealthy Saudi Arabs as a hedge against the possibility that they might win their war to 'unite Islam' against the corrupt rulers of the Arabic world.

(Just as a note -- Saddam Hussein was a hero to many Iraqis, and others in the Middle East because, even as a repressive dictator, he challenged the existing power structure of the Arab world. It was his public reasoning behind the 1990 invasion of Kuwait -- except he bet that the West would not back the Saudi and Kuwaiti 'royal' leaders militarily.)

(Hussein bet wrong -- and it ended in 2003, with an American leader whose family had close ties to the House of Saud being convinced to invade Iraq and be "greeted as liberators", eliminating a Saudi enemy and projecting American power into the heart of the Middle East. That American leader bet wrong, too. )

[A fourth effect on events in the Middle East could be Peak Oil -- that the heights of world oil production has been reached and are now in slow decline -- but we won't know that conclusively for perhaps another decade.]

The reason events in Egypt, Yemen, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan are important is that they ask the musical question, Will the same events play out against the megawealthy, corrupt regimes of the Arabian peninsula, and Saudi Arabia in particular?

Osama bin Laden, Al-Qaeda, and other Islamist terrorists are intent on achieving a dream bin Laden has often referred to: The reestablishment of an Islamic Empire, that reflects the Arabic world of about 500AD - 850AD. It's a dream of sweeping away tribal leaders and clans, who've sold their souls to an infidel West in order to take and maintain power.

The corrupt Saudis and Emirates would be replaced by leaders who were inspired by faith; all in Islam would live under Sharia law, as part of the Umma, a single community with one purpose: To bring the entire world to know that there is one faith and one Prophet, and to convert all humanity (by force and fear as required) to that one, true faith. And, they say all this is the will of god... Someone's god, anyway.

At the same time, there are more secular Arabs, who want a Western quality of life, Western political freedoms, and participation in a wider world which allows and protects diversities -- of religion, of lifestyle, and artistic expression -- while maintaining their cultural identities as (for example) Egyptian or Tunisian Arabs.

The Arabic world is changing. Which vision (an outward-looking more secular, or an inward-turning more religious) ultimately has most influence will be as important to America and Europe as the Rise of China or the retrenchment of Russia. And all players in the global Great Game have shown their intentions to use the tools of the digital age to their advantage.