Felix Zulauf Spells It Out For Us

At The Big Picture, Barry Ritholtz had a conversation in his offices with hedge fund and independent wealth manager, Felix Zulauf.

Herr Zulauf's opinions are well-regarded in circles that deal with money -- (his success in managing client investments through his hedge fund is one reason why), and he has generally come down in a commonsense way against the 'New Austerity' preached by Ms. Merkel and Mr. Cameron.

Zulauf was in New York City as a contributing attendee to the annual Barron's magazine roundtable discussion. After the meeting, Zulauf went to the offices of the investment company in which Ritholtz is a partner, and made some observations Ritholtz shared.

The first one should catch everyone's attention:

• We are on an inevitable path caused by mass credit creation, excessive borrowing, and the credit crisis. The end result is inevitable, and likely unavoidable.

• The Europeans have their own credit crisis, attributable to the creation, in part, of the EU. They are following a similar path the US did [sic].

• There will be another bailout and QE3 (or more) when the situation gets worse; That can be either in market terms or in economic terms.

• Equities remain in a long term secular bear market dating back to 2000, one that is unlikely to end before 2017...

• Of all the currencies in the world, the US Dollar is the least ugly. That says less about the Greenback than it does about the Euro and Yen.

• The Eurozone was problematic since its inception. You cannot have a monetary union but not simultaneous fiscal union.

• Policy makers inevitably punish savers.

• Germany is the creditor to the rest of Europe. Given their history, their biggest concern is hyperinflation, while nations like Greece, Italy and Ireland are facing deflation.

• Watch for rising populism in response to economic turmoil. It is already happening in Europe, and will eventually come to the US.

• The political situation in Europe is unlikely to improve until the crisis is much worse. The same is likely true in the US.

• There will be an eventual repricing of all currencies.

• Greece may very well will leave the Euro, but Italy is probably to [sic] big to do so.

• Countries that can print & devalue their own currencies get to invite tourists, stimulate economy, and climb out of their morass. Tied to the Euro, [a country] simply cannot.

• There is no currency that will retain its value over the next decade except Gold. Every other currency is in a race to print and devalue, inflating away the debt.

• There is no price target on Gold, but he expects higher prices, and perhaps significantly higher prices over the next decade.

So, no dodging the bullet -- Der Untergang is, as I've said before, all happening in slow motion. No Magic Ponies for us -- only more trouble. And, it ain't over until the fat lady is much thinner.

Also, too, there seem to be a number of Our Wise Job Creator Class who feel the same way.

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The Trouble With Harry: Still Here, Too

World Does Not End; Chtulu Unimpressed



You may recall that this past May 21st, Harold Camping, the 89-year-old leader of the Orthogontal Tirebiter Church Of Chtulu's CheeseWhiz (okay; we made that up, but only a little), was "flabbergasted" that his prediction of the Xtian Rapture and beginning of the end of the world as foretold in the Big Book Of Revelations did not occur on that day.

Camping had originally predicted The Same in 1994; when it did not happen, he went back to his Magic Decoder Ring and found he had been off by seventeen years (Professor Frink: "Hu-HAH! Ahhh; forgot to carry the one").

Through a network of xtian radio stations he owns, Harry spent the next 17 years spreading the Bad News that the world was ending, and that people had better Get Right with god -- because after May 21, 2011, no plea for forgiveness would be answered, and the vast majority of humanity would burn burn burn burn burn forever, and the rest would praise praise sing sing praise the all-loving god amen.

The end did not come in May. Many people, who had sold their possessions and stopped making rent or house payments, were a little peeved. So were others who had sent Harry a lot of money over the past seventeen years. Harry was "flabbergasted"; going back to his Magic Decoder Ring, he told The Faithful that he had been slightly off: "And Moab went down to the Land Of The Canaanites and there was this other thing, and the hey hey hey, and the other thing and Hoooo, boy; are we overtime".

Sadly, on June 9th, Camping had a small stroke, but has recovered to a degree since.

According to Harry, the Rapture had taken place -- but, it was invisible. And, contrary to a whole bunch of scriptural interpretation, the world would just end in fire and Badness on October 21, 2011. Period. The end; no more discussion, or Jiff Peanut Butter, or next week's G20 conference, or naughty thoughts about the girl in the taco commercial. Or, naughty thoughts about the G20 (yeah; they have sites like this).

[The Rapture had been] of the spiritual variety, rather than his original vision of earthquakes and other disasters leading to five months of hell on earth, culminating in a spectacular doomsday on Oct. 21.

And, we're still here. The End would have required something on the order of a full-on thermonuclear exchange between Russia, China, the United States and all the nuclear EU nations -- or, Ronald Reagan's reappearance to become the Right's presidential candidate. Camping had said the Bad People would just expire, leaving the world, presumably, to the Chosen Few:

[In a recent radio broadcast] The tone of his message is more mild than his previous declaration. Shying away from talk of wrath and judgment, he says “the end is going to come very, very quietly probably within the next month . . . by October 21. Probably there will be no pain suffered by anyone because of their rebellion against God...” he said. “We can become more and more sure that they’ll quietly die and that will be the end of their story.”

The Chosen Few would presumably, however, have had to dispose of the rest of us -- before we began to smell up the planet and spoil all the praise singing and hosannas, thanking a merciful god that so many billions of hated liberals and foreign-types and terrorist blasphemers were killed... so that the world was given to them, the "Righteous Ones".

This sounds like a bad, made-for-teevee-movie starring Bert Convy, Garner Ted Armstrong, and "Mr. T". With that, we invite you to enjoy your weekend, brought to you courtesy of the Enlightenment™, and Scientific Proofs ©.

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A Reprint: Get Happi Again

I Got Nothin'



C'mon, America: Learn The Secret Known To The Ancients. Or, you know, not.

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Death Of The Duck

Mommar Quadaffi Dead


Al Arabya is reporting that Mommar Quaddafi, whom we've always referred to here as Quaddafi Duck, murderous repressive sociopath (and winner of the "Most Bizarrely-Dressed World Leader" award for twenty years running), has been reported dead in his home town of Sirte, Libya, where he had retreated when all but a few die-hard retainers feld for the safety of the West, leaving the Duck to die in the Führerbunker -- whoops; sorry. Got my historical despots confused for a moment.

Sirte had been surrounded and pummeled by forces of the new Libyan government for weeks, finally coming down to one, single neighborhood which wouldn't surrender. Early this morning (PDST) in Sirte, The Duck and a small group of soldiers attempted to break out of the neighborhood and in the ensuing firefight Quaddafi was killed.

Someone on the scene took a short cellphone video of the crowd surrounding and dragging The Duck's body. Al-Jazeera was showing it unedited in the beginning, then began showing it with Quaddafi's body blurred until it reached a single frame (shown below) where he could be recognized.

Also, it must have been taken almost immediately after the gun battle and his death; in the video, Quaddafi's arm and hand fall back as he was being rolled over, without any apparent stiffness in finger or wrist joints: Rigor begins to set in almost immediately after death, and it begins in the extremities.


AlJazeera Shows Cell Phone Video Of Crowd Defiling The Duck, Mussolini-Style
(Screenshot: Al-Jazeera online)

The Duck is dead. And thousands of shoulder-launched missiles (things which can easily be used against, well, airliners, for god's sake) and other weapons have fallen into the hands of Nobody Knows Who. The possible blowback from Quaddafi's fall and exit is anyone's guess.

There is, however, much rejoicing in Tripoli and elsewhere in Libya, and in the Arab world, at the End Of The Duck. The Libyan people endured decades of repression and bizarre costumes -- so, for a while, no one should harsh the Buzz that comes from the collapse of a dictator and the end of a long season of fear.

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MEHR: Additional videos of The Duck's final moments have surfaced.

As a former law-enforcement-related Dog, seeing anyone killed by a mob without benefit of Due Process is repugnant, no matter how much I may understand the emotions behind it. As a human being, seeing any kind of violence happen, at all, disturbs me. The videos are visceral, brief, but manifestly ugly on a very profound level.

The leader deserved a trial; the man deserved just enough cold, common politeness to get him into a jail cell. Well... Sow the Wind; Reap the Whirlwind. You can do anything in this life you want -- absolutely anything; so long as you understand this: You have to pull whatever freight comes with it.

I think The Duck (like so many of us do, with relatively less serious consequences), had convinced himself that he was somehow immune from that.

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Yes, Virginia; Something Is Different

We'll See About This

A not-very-well-considered change to the Blog. I'm Iffy with it.

Since no one really reads this, I'm guessing it doesn't matter.

Let's see how long it lasts.

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MEHR: Well, Before Nine is more or less back to normal. I'd decided to 'play around' with the so-called 'Template Designer' provided by the Don't-Be-Evil-But-We-Are-Anyway crowd.

Not only did I succeed in screwing everything up (I put it down to Canine Error), but then discovered Google-Blogger doesn't really want you to go back to what you had before. It does not make the design-it-yourself experience easy 'n fun for the Dino Dog set.

Anyway; back to Norbal. I want my chew toy.

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Any Questions?

Yes, This Will Be On The Final


(Via Barry Ritholtz's The Big Picture )

MEHR: As a counterpoint to the effective destruction of the United States at the hands of one, specific political party -- here, a review of media coverage of the major avowed candidates for President in the 2012 elections (P.S.; All but one is a Rethug) by the Pew Center:



"Liberal Media". Be sure and tell that one to Little Rupert. He'll soil himself laughing -- which, given his age, might not be that hard to do under normal circumstances, anyway.

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Education

Fear Not; Four Of These Will Still Buy A Cup Of Coffee;
Ten Thousand (Or Less) Will Buy You A Congressman



Take a look at Occupy George: Art For Education's Sake.

Heh. Perhaps this will inspire you enough to find your own way to say We Are The 99%.

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#OccupyEverywhere

Justice Is Coming


#Occupy Demonstrators In Times Square, New York City
October 15, 2011 (Photo: © 2011 John De Guzman)

They say it’s because you’re lazy. They say it’s because you make poor choices. They say it’s because you’re spoiled. If you’d only apply yourself a little more, worked a little harder, planned a little better, things would go well for you. Why do you need more help? Haven’t they helped you enough? They say you have no one to blame but yourself. They say it’s all your fault.
-- We are the 99 Percent, the Tumblr Of #Occupy

Mother Jones online has an interactive map of the growing international scope of the #Occupy protests. They also have a timeline of the development of the actions since they began in New York City on September 17th, along with charts and links to additional information.


(Click To View Larger Map. It's Easy And Fun!)

However, as most already know, The Revolution Will Be Digitized and is primarily taking place in Tweetspace -- where, unfortunately, Big Brother can listen in and run analytics on them just as well as Twitter can.

MEHR:

This is Why They Hate You and Want You to Die
By Josh Brown (The Reformed Broker)

You want to know why everyone in this country hates you and wants you dead, you big stupid fucking bank?

Here's why, pay attention:

(Reuters) – Bank of America Corp will pay $11 million to ousted executives Joe Price and Sallie Krawcheck, a large payout at a time when banks face protests over pay but smaller than the eight-figure packages some executives received before the financial crisis...

Elevenmilliondollars? What the hell world are you inhabiting? Eleven million dollars for two departing executives because things didn't work out?...

It's not that this isn't your prerogative as a private company - it is. But ...almost like you're making these payments to get a reaction out people.

...when thousands of people are massing in every major city in the country to make the case that you don't deserve to exist... when you're being investigated for employing robo-signers just to maintain a certain level of foreclosures processed per month. At a time when you're laying off rank-and-file employees not by the hundreds, not by the thousands - but in the tens of thousands.

At a time when retired seniors, desperately seeking income, have been pushed into annuities, life settlements, commodities and junk bonds because of the zero percent interest rate policy that was meant to nurse you and your balance sheet back to health - and this is what you do with their money? With OUR money?

Are you crazy?

You pay fired executives more in severance than the average American worker will earn in a lifetime. For most people on the outside looking in, this seems like it's from outer space, another world entirely. These numbers just do not exist to regular human beings, they cannot be fathomed.

The ordinary American is not a class warrior or a woe-is-me whiner coveting the rewards of others - the ordinary American simply believes that extraordinary rewards should go to those who do extraordinary things, not to paper-pushing failures at parasite banks.

So let me give you a hint... This is why they hate you. This very type of thing, while just a single example, epitomizes the piggish mentality that has set you apart from everyone else. This is why they're marching against you and calling for boycotts and writing their politicians. And this is why your whole model and way of life is on its way to being dead. Forever.

...You blew the second chance you got with TARP to re-enter society as a productive component of commerce. You went back to bonus-swilling, full-retard mode as though nothing ever happened and 13 million people weren't sitting around in their post credit-bubble joblessness for three years now.

...You've managed to awaken one of the most indolent, lethargic and apathetic populaces in the history of the world... a slumbering nation of 300 million from it's Entennman's and Zoloft-induced stupor. America is awake now and it's pissed.

Good luck with that.

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Part Of The One Per Cent? Rich? Bored?

Once Only The Concern Of Porn Stars



If you're a woman, I'd like you to think, for just a moment, about the spectrum of challenges that the human species, male and female, currently faces -- ecological, economic; cultural and political. Think hard. Think about all the various requests for financial support that have moved you to give money this past year.

Now; instead of these concerns, think about focusing on this (as reported in the Guardian UK). Think about spending thousands of dollars and a significant amount of personal discomfort -- on buying a new vagina. Because someone (not you) thinks you should.

...This newish industry consists of doctors and their clients (clients, not patients, because these surgeries are cash-only elective procedures) who believe the female nether area can be improved upon or remediated. Procedures offered include labiaplasty (trimming or completely removing labia), vaginal rejuvenation (tightening), hymenoplasty ("revirgination") and clitoral "unhooding" – among others.

...Designer vagina surgery is big business: according to the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, in 2009 female consumers spent an estimated $6.8m (£4.4m) on these procedures (the figure counts only plastic surgeons, not gynecologists). Its popularity is rising in the UK, too – in 2008, the NHS carried out 1,118 labiaplasty operations, an increase of 70% on the previous year. And figures released this year show that plastic surgery company the Harley Medical Group received more than 5,000 inquiries about cosmetic gynecology in 2010, 65% of them for labial reduction, the rest for tightening and reshaping.


You Must Work Hard To Keep Your Man; What Else Is There?

...In the US, cosmetic gynecology may have the official sanction of reality TV (doctors have performed it on the wildly popular plastic surgery makeover show "Dr. 90210") but the same cannot be said of the peer organizations.

The American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) deems such procedures medically unnecessary, possibly unsafe, and is "concerned with the ethical issues"; while the accrediting body, the American Board of Obstetrics and Gynecology (ABOG), refuses to recognize cosmetic [gynecology] as a legitimate sub-speciality.

This means no entry barriers for the physicians, as there are no board-certification requirements. Consumers may not realize that it's a bit of a wild west out there, with doctors working out the kinks, as it were, as they go.

Try and save the Polar Bears; work to rein in Wall Street. Send your money to Progressive politicians -- or, have your already perfect privates remade in an image dreamt up by obese right-wing polticos or producers of fuck movies (there's little difference between the two; trust me), or Type-A, "I'm A Job-Creator" husbands who will leave you for Trophy Wife No. 2 anyway.

Your choice.

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"We Shouldn't Bail Out Banks. We Should Bail Out people."

#Occupy Europa Und Die Welt


Demonstrations In Berlin Against The World Financial Structure

The NYT this morning:

In dozens of cities around the world on Saturday, people took to the streets, clutching placards and chanting slogans as part of a planned day of protests against the financial system.

In Rome, a protest thick with tension spread over several miles. Protesters set fire to at least one building and clashed violently with the police, who responded with water cannons and tear gas.

In other European cities, including Berlin and London, the demonstrations were largely peaceful, with thousands of people marching past ancient monuments and many gathering in front of capitalist symbols like the European Central Bank in Frankfurt. Elsewhere, the turnout was more modest, but rallies of a few hundred people were held in several cities, including Sydney, Australia, Tokyo and Hong Kong. Protests were also held in New York and several other cities in the United States and Canada...

...Despite the difference in language, landscape and scale, the protests were united in frustration with the widening gap between the rich and the poor.

“I have no problem with capitalism. I have no problem with a market economy. But I find the way the financial system is functioning deeply unethical,” Herbert Haberl, 51, said in Berlin. “We shouldn’t bail out the banks. We should bail out the people.”

Another protester in Berlin, Katja Simke, 31, said that it was clear “that something has to be done... This isn’t a single movement but a network of different groups”...

Saturday’s protests sprang from demonstrations in Spain in May and the “Occupy Wall Street” movement that began last month in New York. This weekend, the global show of force came as finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 industrialized nations meet in Paris to discuss global economic issues, including ways to tackle Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

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