Friday, February 25, 2011

Kicking Social Progress To The Curb

Wisconsin

This, from Eric Kleefeld at TPM:
MADISON, WI -- The Wisconsin State Assembly has just passed Gov. Scott Walker's budget repair bill, including its controversial provisions to eliminate almost all collective bargaining rights for public employee unions as well as many other provisions to weaken union organizing.

... at about 1 AM Speaker Pro Tempore Bill Kramer (R) announced that he would hear a voice vote for a roll call on final passage. Immediately, the majority Republicans shouted their ayes, and the Democrats were booing, as they tried to be recognized to demand a separate motion to cut off debate.

Then Kramer called the vote. Within seconds, the digital vote system on the wall announced 51 ayes and 17 nays, and voting was suddenly closed. With a total of 96 members, that got to a majority for the bill but left 28 members who hadn't had a chance yet to vote...

There were many Democrats I spoke to and overheard in the chamber, who said they didn't get a chance to vote, or that they were pushing the "No" button at their desks as hard as they could -- keep in mind that a majority of their 38-member caucus was recorded as casting no votes at all.



There is something in the Zeitgeist these days.

Economic crises are earthquakes, stressing and even collapsing societies, fueling the geologic force of social change. If the crises are serious enough, their results become visible, first, in countries with brittle, underdeveloped economies and little buffer in their cultures between a tiny ruling clique of super-wealthy, and a majority suffering (as in Egypt or Tunisia) in poverty and from nearly 25% unemployment.

The social protests we've been watching on television or via the Web for the past month are the results of corrupt leaders and their internal security apparatus (supported by American and EU governments), running countries for their benefit and their associates, and because they simply enjoy wielding power.

...and it all might have gone on for another few decades -- but for the sailing of the USS Madoff, the Ponzi-scheme pleasure barge which America bequeathed to the rest of the world. We should all call up Little Lloyd Blankfein, Alan Greenspan, "Dick" Fuld and the other Masters Of The Universe, and thank them on behalf of the people of Egypt and Tunisia: Hey, Boys! You created a worldwide financial collapse, and helped destabilize the economies of Arab countries with incompetent, corrupt leaders -- enough to generate a massive popular uprising that removed them from power! Thanks, fellahs!

Governments which have lied to their populations for decades while terrorizing and impoverishing them are crumbling, pulled down by the weight of their internal contradictions (Tunisia, Egypt). Their citizens are in the streets celebrating their reclaiming of basic human rights, or still fighting for them (Libya, Bahrain, Yemen).

Other countries, whose governments and banks once eagerly jumped on the America's Real Estate / Derivatives Failboat, are now deeply in debt and those governments have lost credibility or power. Faced with massive budget cuts to public financing and social programs, their citizens are regularly in the streets protesting the New Austerity (Greece, France, Spain, Ireland).

Wherever you turn, there are the images of change and revolution: Tahir square in Cairo, the shaky cellphone images from Tripoli or Tehran, or the broadcast video of crowds in Athens, Dublin and Madrid, even Paris. At the forefront of the protests are labor unions, historically a real force in European politics.

Much as we like to think Our Special American Story sets us apart from history, the Made-In-USA economic crisis will translate into substantial change, right here. What kind of change depends upon whose message is heard -- and whether anyone on the Left is capable of enunciating, clearly, what the stakes are.

It's just one Dog's opinion, but I haven't heard that done by members of the alleged standard-bearers of the Left (it wasn't in the SOTU, certainly) -- but to one degree or another, what's at stake is the direction of American society and culture for at least the next quarter-century. And, that will play out in a world grappling with shrinking resources and climate change, as major players on the planet maneuver for advantage, and new political or ecological crises rise up.

What's at stake is our American experiment. Whether we believe in human rights, equality, and a collective (i.e., equitable) solution to the problems we're beginning to face -- or whether we descend into more consumerist culture, more class stratification, and even more nakedly apparent manipulation of politics by a wealthy and/or corporate minority.

In case you haven't been paying much attention lately, or are Jeffrey Zuckerberg, America has been experiencing a 'Great Depression-Lite' since mid-2008. It's a Depression in all but name, a reduction in our quality of life in very slow motion. Our government has all the challenges of the Irish or Greeks (a debt crisis; banks coddled and protected despite their role in creating it), and has effectively given the financial sector whatever it wants.

Obligatory Cute Animal Photo In Middle Of Blog Rant

Billionaire bully-boys created and finance a faux-populist political movement to drive the Republican party and American conservatism farther and farther to the Right. The Republican party believes that the 'Tea Party', like the so-called 'religious' Right before them, can be mollified and controlled -- useful as stalking horses. Even the GOP can seem centrist and reasonable, when compared with The Crazy spouted by Teabag leaders and recently-elected Representatives.

But that's Riding The Tiger, and may not turn out the way President Boner and President Yertle The Turtle expect. The Teabag (and GOP) fiscal policies effectively mean that the financial crisis -- the failure and destruction caused by banks and business, by Republican leadership -- will be paid for, not on an equitable basis; not by corporations and the wealthy as well; but by what's left of a Middle Class, and the poor.

But that isn't all the Right wants. They believe our financial crisis is a heaven-sent opportunity to kick a century of social progress to the curb -- a Great Breaking of the compact between government and citizen. They want to eliminate social changes that have been made over the past hundred years or more. And they're willing to spend time, resources, and tens of millions of dollars to make it happen.

That would herald a reduction in the power of a government weakened by debt, ridiculed as a corrupt profession -- while the power of private and corporate wealth rises to fill the vacuum. It's the America of Alexander Hamilton -- or Stephen King's Running Man, Margaret Atwood's The Handmaid's Tale, or Paul Theroux's "O-Zone".

No matter to what degree the Right is successful, part of that Breaking will be to crush what's left of America's unions -- and not only the organizations: What they want is to do away with the social concepts behind them, the idea that workers should organize, bargain collectively, and be able to demand contractual changes about their pay or working conditions. The Shock-Doctrine excuse (this time) is, "We're broke! Unions are just too expensive now!"

And the figurehead who delivers these policies is of little concern to the Billionaire and Corporate backers of the Right; they don't care which Teabag or GOP talking face survives the Ronnie Rayguns Scratch-N-Sniff test. It isn't a real political process they want for America -- and one proof are the losers, weasels, and nutjobs "leaders" that the Right has put forward for 2012: the Huckabees, Bachmanns, Romneys, Palins or Barbours.

The Backers only need a mannequin, a ventriloquist's dummy, in the Oval Office. The real Business of America goes on in the networks between those with capital, and those who move it around - and whoever is elected doesn't matter, so long as they understand not to disturb the adults, or their affairs -- and the empty designer suits who are eventually nominated as GOP Presidential candidates do understand, very well.

The sad truth is, this is just the way of human affairs: A struggle between those with wealth and/or power, and everyone else. Politics, at best, is a constant effort to force those With to agree to give up more to those Without. This has been the dominant theme in human affairs for more Dog years than I can imagine.

But the Teabaggers are quick to tell us: That's just not true. America is different. We're better than that. We have a great, mythic history that sets us apart and that makes us better than other, older cultures because we be havin' us some Freedom. And if you believe otherwise; well, you're of no use to us, you dirty hippie. All we need (as Little Sarah, Plain and Tall, has said) is to "reclaim" our greatness -- and could, if it wasn't for all the dirty hippies who are enemies of Teh Freedom.

As Kleefeld notes, however,
Keep in mind that this is not the end of the issue -- far from it. The 14 state Senate Democrats remain in exile in Illinois, preventing the state Senate from having the three-fifths quorum required to take a vote on the budget. For now, Wisconsin has become ground zero in an unexpected but pitched battle over the political future of the labor movement and the question of whether the Tea Party-fueled GOP resurgence of 2010 will trigger a backlash all its own.

It's ridiculous, I know; but I'd suggest the Kochs, the Blankfeins, Walkers and Palins of the world draw the proper lessons from those images coming out of the Middle East ... and, in this little fantasy, almost hope that they won't -- so that one day they'll have to escape by helicopter for exile in whatever country will take them.



On The lighter side:
An Indiana Deputy Attorney General "is no longer employed" by the Attorney General's Office, after he tweeted for "live ammunition" to be used on protesters in Wisconsin, the office announced in a statement Wednesday afternoon.

The deputy AG, Jeff Cox, wrote his comments in response to tweets from a Mother Jones editor, Adam Weinstein.

"[A]gainst thugs physically threatening legally-elected state legislators & governor? You're damn right I advocate deadly force," Cox wrote.


Wednesday, February 23, 2011

The Greek Way

Protestors In Athens Suppressed By Police

©Archie Comics (No Date): International Archie And Jughead

αψίδα άνθρωπος: Do you not understand the time of season, Man with head of breasts? We live like animals! Read this "Tweet" -- we are massing in the central square! Our current situation can mean a Greek Revolution!

ο άνθρωπος με το κεφάλι στο στήθος: That's harsh, dude!

Niki Kitsantonis of the New York Times reports that in Athens, Greece, "Violent clashes between protesters and the police broke out ... as the two main labor unions staged the first general strike of the year against the government’s austerity drive, paralyzing public services and disrupting transportation." The confrontation turned rather ugly.

A Green union official told Kitsantonis that similar strikes "would be repeated until the Greek government reviewed its agreement with its international creditors, who pledged about $150 billion in loans to Greece last May if the country pushed through a raft of austerity measures, trimmed the public sector and changed the pension and tax systems."

It was demanded that Veronica, raven-haired character from the Archie and Jughead comics series, replace the image of the Greek Goddess Athena on official buildings, currency, and in logos on travel brochures.

I always thought that Veronica looked like "Wonder Woman', anyway.

Veronica (©Archie Comics); Wonder Woman (Alex Ross, 2000)


Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Little Glenn Beck Vows To Fight, Die Like Martyr Hero Ground Sloth

The Uh, Something, Is Now


SOMEWHERE, USA: Teevee leader Little Glenn Beck, eight years old, vowed to fight on to his "last drop of blood" and roared at his supporters to buy more precious metal futures via 'Goldline', shouting and pounding his fist in a furious appearance this week after continuing media polls show he has lost two-thirds of his 2010 audience.

It was (yet) another occasion where the conservative teevee host appeared to talk about the imminent upheaval of "a world in chaos", and what he claims is the evil of George Soros, with maps drawn on a blackboard in chalk. Wearing brown robes and a turban, a dark blue blazer and rep tie, or Lederhosen, Beck spoke from behind a podium via Fox 'News' in the studio used to present his interpretations of history, finance, and religion to an ever-shrinking audience.

At times the camera panned back to show a towering monument of a navy blue-and-white-colored fist (Fox's 'official' colors) crushing an American voter. But at the same time, the view gave a surreal image of the teevee commentator, shouting and waving his arms wildly, standing alone in a studio with no audience, surrounded by a set of false walls and broken tiles dangling from the ceiling.

"America wants glory, America wants to be at the pinnacle, at the pinnacle of the world," Beck proclaimed, pounding his fist on the podium. "It's what god wants, god has told me to speak and to fight on because I am a fighter -- someone who has always fought the good fight, because I fight. I fight the fighting... you might say I am a fighting man who fights -- a fighting fighter, in a word..."

Obligatory Cute Small Animal Photo In Fake News Story

"I will die as a martyr at the end," he added, vowing to fight "to the last drop of blood," and exhorting his listeners to invest in more gold and large tubs of freeze-dried food.

Nielsen ratings showed that approximately seventy-five people sat in front of teevees which showed Mr. Beck's hour-long monologue. There is a 22.3% possibility that some of them were awake during portions of the program. There is also an 8.24% possibility that some of them were dead.

Asked for a comment about the continuing antics of Mr. Beck, his employer, Little Rupert Murdoch, smiled and climbed into his chauffeured, armored Bentley.



[With apologies to MAGGIE MICHAEL and SARAH EL DEEB of the Associated Press, for their story (via Salon online magazine), "Libyan President Moammar Gadhafi vows to fight on, die a martyr -- The embattled dictator unleashes a defiant, angry, rambling speech on state television".]


Monday, February 21, 2011

Yes We Can Can

From Japan With (Blow Up Girl) Love

$2.80 US Gets You A Short Stack, Butter And Syrup; In A Can

All right; given all the changes occurring in the (non-Western) world, it's time to inaugurate a New Blog Category: Yes We Can In A Can, featuring the stupid and irredeemably bizarre amazing things one can get which come to all of us in This Modern World, in a can.

You've already seen the Sandwich In A Can™, and Sweet Sue's Whole Chicken In A Can™. Now, we bring you Pancake Essence Beverage by the Japan's Dydo Corporation (a division of Nataka Heavy Machine Industries. Okay, we made that part up).

Join His World-Family-Revolution For Cleanliness, Or Die
(Homer Simpson As 'Mister Sparkle', circa 1994)

Apparently, this is a drink which appears to resemble tea with milk, yet tastes like a stack of pancakes with butter and maple syrup -- hence the idea of an "essence" drink, providing a simulacrum of one kind of experience in the guise of another.

The Japanese also make amazingly lifelike Love Dolls, too... the majority of which resemble pre-teen girls, a sad commentary on the state of the sexual tastes of at least one sector of Japan's male population.

A 'Candy Girl', With The M-Series Body: $10,000 US, Please

They aren't the sort of inflate-o-doll you can buy in the 'secret section' at Wal-Mart, either: While they rely on the same essential concept, these silicone productions cost between $8,000 and $10,000 US. And, no, I'm not posting any other photos of that. This is a family blog, goddamn it.

When you can get one in a can, I'll consider it; but remember, I'm a Dog. My only interest in one of the Candy Girls would be as a chew toy, aber natürlich. Just Sayin'.


Saturday, February 19, 2011

Them That Don't, Shall Lose

God Bless The Child


[Q]uestions of basic economic justice, and war and peace... [have] moved so far right that we have a political discourse which would have been largely unrecognizable a generation ago. The first step toward changing that situation is recognizing it for what it is.
-- Paul Campos, 'Single-Wing Politics', (Via Whiskeyfire)
Lawyers, Guns and Money; February 12, 2011
"Everything's fucked up, and nobody goes to jail," he said. "That's your whole story ... Hell, you don't even have to write the rest of it. Just write that."
-- Matt Tabibi, 'Why Isn't Wall Street In Jail?'
Rolling Stone, March 3, 2011 Issue

The collapse of America's financial structure between 2007 and the present (because it isn't over; did you think it was?) has been the result of unregulated greed and arrogance -- personal, and corporate.

It was allowed by a political structure deeply corrupted by an addiction to power and personal wealth. Their complicity was purchased by the financial industry -- and with relatively minuscule amounts of money, compared with the profits made by corporate banks; financial trading houses; insurance, real estate, construction, and mortgage companies -- all as deeply corrupted and addicted to wealth, acquisition and power as their political hirelings.

However, even though the causes and effects of this disaster are clear, and those responsible can be identified ... the government has chosen not to hold them accountable -- but to reward them, by giving them essentially free loans to protect their businesses. They took the money, did little the government wanted them to do, and have continued behaving very much as before.

But of The Masters Of The Universe who run America's financial empire, no one was indicted, no one has been tried, and no one will go to prison.

Banks Too Big To Fail;
Justice Too Insignificant To Win


Bernard Madoff goes to prison. A trader here and there who breaks the rules about insider information will go to prison. One hundred-plus Physicians and Nurses will be prosecuted for Medicare fraud. But the players who have effectively destabilized the global economy, while making themselves and their friends into multi-Billionaires -- will never be held accountable. They simply continue to become more wealthy, protected, and coddled.

This is the truth: They Got Away With It. It's at variance with public messages of America as a nation of laws, where the rights of all persons except enemies of the State, the disenfranchised, the poor, or those without connections are respected, and where every person and every institution who can afford to purchase justice are equal before those laws.

This is at variance with what most people have been taught as children about the difference between Right and Wrong. It's a breach of commonly-held societal ethics, the cooperative, shared fabric most people inhabit in order to get through their day. It doesn't correlate with the messages in film and teevee and novels: You break the law; you're caught; in some way, you're punished.

That the Masters Of The Universe have not been held accountable is a message to everyone: If the crime is big enough enough, brazen enough, you will face no penalty; and you may be rewarded. Because things aren't fair, and the world really is arranged to favor the strong over the weak, the rich over the poor: I Got Mine, Baby; And Screw Everyone But Me And Thee... And Maybe You, Too.

Sacrifice Your Children To The Jaguar God

America finally realizes it has a massive National Debt -- created primarily by fiscal and foreign policies of the Right since 1981, which lowered corporate taxes, protected the wealthy and (covertly or overtly) waged endless war. If America doesn't reduce that Debt, our economy will implode; so, government spending and national priorities will have to be reallocated.

And, rather than raise taxes, our political class claims the only true way to reduce the Debt is by curtailing or even destroying the social safety nets developed to protect the weakest and most vulnerable of our population. It's as if the monster those same politicians assisted in creating now has to be fed, almost literally, with human sacrifices.

High unemployment, lowered standards of living for the majority of the population; fiscal policies which widen the gulf between the wealthy and everyone else -- these are already becoming the 'New Normal', and if the political Right forces enactment of a New Austerity in the Federal Budget, it will be graven in stone as national policy -- and the Right will claim credit as a 'wise, bipartisan compromise' to end the 'fiscal irresponsibility' of a loony, Socialist Left, whom they allege is running the country.

It won't matter that this is a lie. The wealthiest of our population will continue to be catered to. Likewise, our corporations. Our political class will see to it that the effects of the financial disaster will be paid for by everyone else -- Them that has, Gets; Them that don't, shall Lose. The weak culls will fall by the wayside as nature intended. It's natural law.

The Budget: Which Vision Of Government Wins?

Rightist social Darwinism was the reasoning behind putting Social Security, Unemployment Insurance, and later Medicare and Medicaid, in place. FDR and the Democrats recognized that Capital's Boom-and-Bust business cycles were systemic, and only by creating some minimal, safe harbor could a government ensure that the elderly didn't starve in the streets, and the poor wouldn't die from disease.

And it seemed proper that taxation -- for business, for individuals -- would contribute to a collective solution for a repeating issue: Excess Risk in the business sector, periodically placing the country's economy (and the stability of most of the population) in jeopardy.

Even with the obvious social benefits to the American population, the fight to pass these ideas into law were symbolic of the Right, and Left's, vision of what the national government's relationship with it's people were about.

Social Security, Unemployment, and Medicare-Medicaid were compacts between a national government and its citizens: You, the individual, matter. Your health, welfare and security are your government's first concerns -- and your income, social status, race, religion, gender, or political beliefs are irrelevant. You're all important as human beings and citizens of America; we won't let you suffer. We'll be there to help you.

It's been taught that this philosophy of government is a natural extension of America's uniqueness, that it reflects our all-embracing equality. We've been told this perspective of the national government viz. The People sets our nation apart -- makes us better than Venezuelan Banana Republics, the Russias or Italys run by Oligarchs like private clubs; and the Zimbabwean, African strong-man-style dictatorships. We're Americans; we're better than that.

Government Is For Losers

But for our Owner Class, and the political Right, that's not what government is for. Their worldview favors the individual, not the collective, good. It benefits those who Have, and those who don't are free to show some guts and claw their way up: Nature, Competition; red in tooth and claw, is how the world works -- god's way of winnowing the Elect from the rest of us, who (in the best Puritan, Calvinist tradition) are just bound for hellfire anyway.

The Right's politicians, the Villagers in D.C., America's corporate noveau riche and the old-money wealthy only want the Gravy Train to continue. The wealthy want to live quiet, rich, full lives in secluded splendor, as generations before them have done. They don't care what goes on, outside.

Corporations want the ability to operate their enterprises as they see fit, with any regulation essentially for show: They could care less if the future has the pernicious smell of a Love Canal, the strange, bad taste of Wright County Eggs, or all the safety of a Toyota Camry; it's about Free Enterprise, Baby! They feel their Federal and State taxes are far too high. They want the FDA, FTSB, EPA and SEC off their backs, and they want consumers to pay higher prices. Because.

National government, in the opinion of these people, should return to what it was immediately after 1865 -- unobtrusive, largely unseen. Social programs and restrictive legislation are wasteful. They benefit people whose contributions to the world are minimal at best. And it restricts free enterprise through unfair taxation and science no one cares about; it harms the ability to amass wealth and pass it down intact to one's heirs: It's a family thing.

America, they will tell you, was created by strong individuals with vision, who directed our workers national energies by paying pittance wages and offering no benefits for generations until forced to do so toward a bright future. They've dreamed of killing the "Socialism" of FDR and the New Deal, the Kennedys, and LBJ having the clock rolled back for almost eighty years. Now (and please God, I hope not), they might get their wish.

Remember To Bow As They Pass

If and when the country subsides into a dark cycle of poverty and ignorance for everyone except those who can afford to avoid it, and if their comfort is built on a mountain of suffering, the virtual indentured servitude of others... Does anyone believe they'll care? Do they show that they care now?

The rest of us will have to be satisfied with lower expectations for clean water and air, housing; safe food; good basic education; safe neighborhoods or public places, and medical care beyond aspirins, bandaids and Mercurochrome. And, that the highest aspirations of our children may be to one day rise high enough to serve and personally kiss the asses of The Masters Of The Universe.

Not that all this is any great surprise, you understand.


Friday, February 18, 2011

Them That Has, Gets

Jobless Recovery; Less For You, More For Them
It's A Swell World If You're In The Top 2 Per Cent


As They say, Word.


Thursday, February 17, 2011

Uh-huh

There's bad JuJu in Bahrain; the Governor of Wisconsin is an asshat and has provoked unions in the state to finally stand up and make the Right understand that In Union There Is Strength; all of a sudden, there's greater solar flare activity now than at any time in the past five years; and I seem to gain weight simply by fixing fat right out of the air by breathing.

At The Place Of Witless Labor™, I turned to a Subcreature-Peer and said,
You know what? Whenever you want to deliver bad news about something from now on -- I want you to preface it with, Once upon a time, there was a happy, furry puppy. And I want you to put in a Unicorn, and a rainbow, too. Happy furry puppy, and a rainbow. Then you can share all the deliriously whacked-out crap you want. Just lead with the goddamn furry puppy.

But, all the things I mentioned... they're effectively isolated incidents, right? At the micro level, there's plenty of evidence of sanity, relative stability and a few yucks. Sure there is. And a pony.

Later, jumping on my virtual board and surfing the Intertubes, I found this comment on a someone's website:

Anyway, I'm working on a new post and, despite signs to the contrary, I'm not beginning an agonizing retreat into a life of substance abuse and failure. In fact, just this morning, I ate fruit, drew a picture of my dog and then later waved pleasantly at a person passing by on the street. Is that something that a despondent, irreversibly damaged drunk would do? Kapow. Totally logical and irrefutable rebuttal to your possible doubts.

...all righty then. I'm waiting for the Alien Invasion next. Given the signs, I'm sure it's the next thing coming around the corner.


Stuff Out There

The minute I go outside to chase cars, you let stuff happen.

Humans; leave you alone for a minute, and you despoil the planet, foul the oceans, and treat each other like chattel. So many opportunities to be glad I'm a Dog.

  • Texas = Stupid
    This, which really needs no additional comment, from the New York Times: This month, The Houston Chronicle published an opinion piece by [Barbara Bush, wife of 'Big Boots' Bush] titled “We Can’t Afford to Cut Education,” in which Mrs. Bush pointed out that students in Texas currently rank 47th in the nation in literacy, 49th in verbal SAT scores and 46th in math scores.
  • Texas is also ranks third in the nation in Teen pregnancies (some, even, by non-family members), and Number One in Repregnancies by some of those same Teens! Meanwhile, Governor Rick Perry says Texas is Jus' Fahn; s'All Good.
  • Silvio = Il Più Grande Testicolo L'Europa
    From The Daily Beast: An Italian judge has ordered Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to stand trial for allegedly paying for sex with an underage prostitute and then abusing his official power by trying to cover it up. The judge agreed to waive a preliminary hearing and send Berlusconi directly to trial due to what prosecutors called the “obviousness of the evidence” against him. He faces up to three years in prison on the prostitution charge and 12 years on the abuse of power charge. Silvio, meanwhile, doesn't care, and in a roundtable discussion of the situation with Italian Journalists based in the U.S. on Charlie Rose last night, all agreed this would be a terrific spectacle, but that Berlusconi would not willingly back away from being an Oligarch With A Little Country All His Own. (By the way; I'm not sure how they arrived at the name 'Daily Beast' for their site, but for obvious reasons, I like it.)
  • Continuing Protests Across Middle East
    The NYT notes: "From northern Africa to the Persian Gulf, governments appeared to flounder over just how to outrun mostly peaceful movements, spreading erratically like lava erupting from a volcano, with no predictable end."
  • President, Congress = Slash 'n Burn Crazy Stupid
    Well, you knew this. Unfortunately, we have a leader who has already made a number of bad calls and is about to make another: On the day the Obama administration released its FY 2012 budget... William, a passionate New York Democrat [wrote]: "Yeah, let's cut public health services," he wrote. "Pardon me while I puke. Will this gutless worm fight for anything? He accepts GOP premises and fights on their turf." (From Salon online magazine)
More later. What; this isn't enough?


Friday, February 11, 2011

Fallout

Random Deep Barking

As a Dog, I have a decent enough nose to have understood that the Egyptian army would choose to dump the old guy everyone hated and not shoot innocent people defending that Old Guy, in favor of keeping some control over the changes that will follow after his departure.

My nose tells me now that there will be an Israeli - Palestinian settlement, and possibly a new Palestinian state, before the end of 2011. I'd give it better than 70/30 odds.

And, depending upon which way things fall in Egypt, odds of an airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities by the Israeli air force (I'd have said 60/40 before Mubarak's departure) are significantly lower now.

Little Mahmood, leader of the Islamic People's Fun Republic Of Chuckles™, must be very pleased. Less so, the Israeli government.

But, I'm only a Dog, and no one listens to me.


Quo Vadis?


What comes next for Egypt? It's easy to say, "That'll be up to the Egyptians", but it isn't entirely accurate.

The United States depended on the stability of Mubarak's regime as a cornerstone of our Middle East policy. They were cool, but still neutral, towards Israel, and Mubarak's secret police and state intelligence apparatus shared information with the CIA (along with interrogating Al-Qaeda prisoners when it suited the U.S.).

That's gone now. What comes next?

The Chess Game

The Iranians, through their client organizations, Hezbollah and Hamas (and others ideologically aligned with them, such as the Islamic Brotherhood in Egypt), would like to extend their influence further, because this is a long story of tribes and religious factions and generations-old rights and wrongs.

At its best, it's just another tale of desire for power over others (always, for their own good), and wealth, of the sort that's despoiled human affairs for twenty Millennia. It's considered the Great Game, played out across thousands of years of history -- and the nations of the West are newcomers ( One reason the English, when they were the dominant Empire, tried so hard to study and understand the East).

These days, it tickles the Iranian Mullahs that Shiite Islamic Persians might begin to rival the Arabic, Sunni Islam regimes (Saudi Arabia in particular; and United Arab Emirates [Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Quataar, Bahrain]; Kuwait), all vastly wealthy from sale of oil reserves, that have led the Muslim world for so long.

It's one reason Iran wants nuclear weapons, why they want control of Lebanon (through Hezbollah and a quiet alliance with Syria); and why they play very nicely with the Taliban and Al-Qaeda: It suits their purposes.

Riding The Tiger

The Muslim Brotherhood has been very quiet during the uprising against Mubarak in Egypt, another Sunni-led nation -- but, then, so were the Bolsheviks in March of 1917.

I'm not trying to equate the Islamics with communists (Little Rupert pays Glenny serious money to do that on teevee). But, that's how it is in revolutions: Radical groups can hijack popular revolts through discipline, organization, and fear. The Bolsheviks did it. In a slightly different way, so did the radical wing of the French Committee For Public Safety during their 1789 Revolution, ending in the execution of the King, and the Terror. So did the English in the revolution against the Stuarts in the seventeenth century, resulting in the execution of the King and the preeminence of Parliament. You could argue that the nazis did followed a similar process, but that would be stretching the example a bit.

Crane Brinton, in Anatomy Of Revolution, a text I once had to read at University, argued that revolutions follow a general pattern: Popular discontent builds until it overflows in demonstrations, strikes, sympathetic politicians walking out of parliament, etc. This is followed by some violent event, a "crisis", that crystallizes the Mob (Brinton's term) and radicalizes them to take action (In France, the storming of the Bastille and the Estates Generale taking control from Louis XVI; in Russia, occupying the Winter Palace and the Duma announcing a new government; the forced abdication of Nicholas II).

The leaders of the Opposition to a regime take control and form a provisional government. At this point, a smaller, more radical group within the Opposition begins to agitate the Mob, causing them to demand more change than the new, more moderate government, is comfortable with.

If they don't make the changes, they'll lose popular support and control of their revolution. As most popular revolts stem from resistance to an oppressive regime, the new government can't arrest the radicals, just because they're asking for change; that's what the revolution was for.

The provisional government is forced to make concessions -- and the radicals, even if they got what they wanted, will claim the provisional government is Wrong And Bad, and go on agitating the Mob, forcing them to make even more concessions or arrest the radicals. It's Morton's Fork -- and, the new government is often well and truly Forked in the end.

Eventually, the radicals make their move, and assume control. Afterward, things can be disorganized and chaotic. People don't like prolonged periods of uncertainty, and not having reliable deliveries of food, and after a time can spark a Thermidorian Reaction (Please look it up. It has nothing to do with lobsters), where a dictator arises (in Britain, Cromwell [though that didn't last]; in France, Napoleon; in Russia, Stalin) to end the revolutionary chaos and provide "order" and "stability". You can see how well that worked out for France, Russia, and for Europe, in Stalin and Napoleon's cases.

The British? Well, look what happened to them: They ran the world for a few hundred years but in their cuisine, boil everything, including their bread (ganz Shreklich); so, who cares.

So, Egypt: Will it evolve into a more free and open Arabic society, a balance of religious belief and secular lifestyles; an example of a middle way out out of despotism and a jewel of the Middle East? Or will it descend into Iranian-style 'Islamic revolution'?

Who knows. As Yoda says, "Always in motion is the future". When in doubt, quote a hand puppet.